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  #21  
Old 07-12-2005, 05:37 PM
2+2 Junkie 2+2 Junkie is offline
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Default Re: Aces, the river pairs the board, and I check/raise...

I think a raise on the turn by the villian almost always is str8, two pair, or a set. Almost never TPTK. Therefore, on the river, when the 3 comes out, that only helps you now beat 1 of the 3, so I would check and call his bet. If he 3-bets you here, that would really suck.
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  #22  
Old 07-12-2005, 06:11 PM
MrWookie47 MrWookie47 is offline
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Default Re: Aces, the river pairs the board, and I check/raise...

Well, I count 9 ways each for him to have two pair (Q7, Q6, and 76). There are 3 ways each for him to have a set, and QQ is very unlikely. There are 16 ways for him to have 54. There are 6 hands each for filled two pairs (Q3, 73, and 63), but those are all quite loose preflop calls. That's 27 hands I beat, and at the very least 25 I certainly have to be worried about, probably some more. Upon further review, I don't think I'm ahead often enough to raise here. We could hem and haw over whether or not 77 would call on the flop or whether or not Q3 would call preflop, but the line of reasoning that reduces the effective count of hands I lose to is only going to reduce the hands I beat somewhat, too. Sitting at the table, I didn't count the hands thoroughly in the heat of the action.
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