what to do with AK here?

[brick]

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this is all pre coffee analysis

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[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] Impressive, all this before coffee.

[humdinger]

I may be thinking funny, but I don't think UTG has AA or JJ here. I don't think that a set would checkraise the flop.

More importantly, with a 4 bet cap, I am pretty confident that a set would not cap the flop. By capping the flop, it eliminates the chance of checkraising the turn. By calling the flop 3 bet and checkraising the turn, UTG gets to put more money in AND put more pressure on the mule.

I expect UTG to have AK, AJ, AQ, or maybe a hand like KQh.

hd

[mike l.]

talking to lmd i like a turn raise and fold to a turn 3 bet. it's close to right to call the turn 3 bet and then fold for one more bet if a K doesnt come on the river since utg may have AJ, but i think just dumping on the turn despite the big pot is the correct play. i mean, if hero raises there and is still getting fired back at then AK is just no good. period, and drawing dead too often to call even more bet really.

one of the main reasons i like raising the turn here is because it punishes the donk in the middle who is most likely in with some sort of draw. if it were just heads up then there's really no reason to raise. but the bonus of trapping the donk with what could still be the best hand is just too +EV to give up.

pimp lmd fwiw said i was wrong and calling is the play.

[fnord_too]

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one of the main reasons i like raising the turn here is because it punishes the donk in the middle who is most likely in with some sort of draw. if it were just heads up then there's really no reason to raise. but the bonus of trapping the donk with what could still be the best hand is just too +EV to give up.



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It may "punish" the donk by making his call less +EV, but that does not help you any if you don't have >= 33% pot equity, which you don't here, so you are punishing yourself just to make the donk's call slightly less +EV (if indeed he is on a flush draw). If your hand could reasonably be best here, I am completely off base as I saw hero tied at best, having 2-3 outs at second best, or drawing dead.

[Josh W]

One more pertinent detail...I'm dating UTG's girlfriend.

Anyhoo, "Hero" raised the turn, and I just called UTG. Donkey called. River was a small heart, and i bet out. Donk mucked, and Hero called w/ AKs.

That was my last hand of the session. It was predetermined that it would be my last hand. After I racked up and cashed out, I talked to mike l. about it. My first comment was "I just won a huge pot, but I played it like poo".

As it turns out, I had T9h. I flopped an openended straight and flush draw. When seeing "Hero"s hand, I was really mad at myself for not threebetting the flop. I think if I threebet the flop, I'd stand a real chance of winning this huge pot without improving. I was pretty sure on the flop that donk had a gutshot. I still don't know for sure, he may have had a hand like QJ or Ax or something. But I think if I had threebet the turn, I win it right there. Either that, or donk calls two more cold with a gutshot, and any river bet wins it (assuming he misses).

I think that my comments to mike l. after the hand made him think about it, especially from Hero's point of view.

So, yeah. Just to prove I'm not results oriented (tee hee), I'm mad at myself after winning a very large pot. I think my EV was like 8 FULL BIG BETS higher if I threebet the turn.

Thats bout it!

Josh

[mike l.]

when josh said threebet the flop in that post above he meant turn. threebet the turn.

anyway yeah i talked to pimp lmd about 3 betting the turn. i told him you have so much equity in the pot especially with the donk in juicing the pot up w/ dead chips that it's almost a freeroll. lmd said AK is never folding there dont be silly and it'd be spewage to 3 bet the turn there.

[DpR]

I also believe AK is never folding here. Its one of those plays that we talk about a lot here, but I do not think many people are implementing (raise and fold to three bet) - at least not with a hand that might be tied.

That said there is little reason for UTG not to 3-bet, especially with his read of the donk. On one hand he donk calls more and he amkes money. OR, he folds K10 and UTG picks up his Q outs.

[andyfox]

"One more pertinent detail...I'm dating UTG's girlfriend."

You too?

[surfdoc]

This thread makes me dizzy.

[roy_miami]

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I think my EV was like 8 FULL BIG BETS higher if I threebet the turn.


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No fear of AA, JJ, or donk having a higher flush and or straight draw? I like the way you played it. I think you can put "hero" on at least AK with 99% certainty and AK isn't folding in that situation.