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#21
07-06-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: Scare card gets there - That\'s a good thing right?
<font color="red">Now, when the BB raises, you decide to 3-bet. I would like to know why. If this is a value play, I would perceive it to be pretty slim. </font>
You're correct the reason for posting this hand was mainly because I was interested in comments about the river play, but I'll try to address your question about the flop: An A53 flop would be a very standard steal play for a sb. Very often he will pick up a pot uncontested against a random big blind hand and an UTG limper. A good big blind (or limper), will realize this and might often try to re-steal. So if you're the sb, just calling a raise or folding to a raise is not automatic. Especially when you have 2nd pair/best kicker. Another reason to 3 bet is that if you are against a pocket pair such as 77, etc., you are correct to call after he raises. Yet, if there is any chance a 3-bet from you might convince him to fold his pocket pair on the turn, it is certainly worth it to do so. Don't forget there are a lot of overcards which might come to his pair. Lastly, you should sometimes 3-bet the flop for meta-game considerations. I don't necessarily want him folding next time when I really do have an ace or better. I also want to send a message that it can get expensive for him to try and outplay me if all he has is a small pair, etc. So as you are correct that this play could easily be a -EV taken in an isolated incident. But if used rarely and with good judgement, I believe it can be +EV over the long run. 
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#23
07-06-2005, 07:33 PM
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RESULTS: And some river thoughts
Thanks for all the comments. I was a little dissappointed that the river didn't get discussed more. Here are the results and some thoughts on the river play.
He called my check/raise and my hand beat out 65. About the river: I thought there was a decent enough chance that we had both caught a 5 on the turn and that my hand was still good. But I'm not a total idiot. I realize there are quite a few hands that beat me as well... If I bet the river, he will just call with some of the hands that beat mine (such as a straight, flush, or small full house), and will always just call when my hand is good. So in each case, I either win or lose 1 bet. Yet, he will always raise with his stronger hands and I of course, will be obliged to payy him off. In these cases, I will lose 3 bets. However, if I check/raise... He simply can't 3 bet me with a worse hand after the club hits. So I will lose 2 bets to some of the same hands he beats me with, but I will now also gain an extra bet (win 2 bets), when my hand is good. In the end, I thought I gained the most +EV by check/raising, instead of betting. I know this is dicey and I'm not that good at math. Is my thinking flawed here?
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#25
07-06-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: RESULTS: And some river thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for all the comments. I was a little dissappointed that the river didn't get discussed more. Here are the results and some thoughts on the river play. He called my check/raise and my hand beat out 65. About the river: I thought there was a decent enough chance that we had both caught a 5 on the turn and that my hand was still good. But I'm not a total idiot. I realize there are quite a few hands that beat me as well... If I bet the river, he will just call with some of the hands that beat mine (such as a straight, flush, or small full house), and will always just call when my hand is good. So in each case, I either win or lose 1 bet. Yet, he will always raise with his stronger hands and I of course, will be obliged to payy him off. In these cases, I will lose 3 bets. However, if I check/raise... He simply can't 3 bet me with a worse hand after the club hits. So I will lose 2 bets to some of the same hands he beats me with, but I will now also gain an extra bet (win 2 bets), when my hand is good. In the end, I thought I gained the most +EV by check/raising, instead of betting. I know this is dicey and I'm not that good at math. Is my thinking flawed here? [/ QUOTE ] you're folding to a 3 bet on the riv, right?
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#26
07-06-2005, 07:47 PM
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Re: Scare card gets there - That\'s a good thing right?
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red"> and it seems you have a 5 </font> What about my flop play would make him put me on a 5? Especially if HE has one? <font color="red">While other hands with 5's in them would rasie and cap, it is not obvious they would raise the flop... </font> Don't forget an A53 flop is a pretty standard bluff bet for most small blinds in this situation, since a sb would have no reason to think anyone has an ace and might easily pick up the pot unconstested. Now an aggressive bb might try a re-steal with a wide variety of hands. This happens all the time. <font color="red">...AND there is reason to be nervous about a better 5 after your three bet. </font> There is no better 5 than K5, unless it's a full house. [/ QUOTE ] Hmm, Im not good with the colored text et al. I guess my mesaage was not very clear. 1) Nothing about your flop play sugests you have a 5. Your turn 3 bet suggests it. 2) I agree a 5 is not impossible and I mentioned it, however I feel it is less likely than the other possibles. Even in the 30 about 50% of players are afraid to raise there is a 5. 3) I was referring to reason for your opponent to be nervous about a better 5, not you. Thus he has reason not to cap the turn with only a 5. So I stand by what I intended with the original message. Now I'll check your results post.
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#28
07-06-2005, 07:57 PM
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Re: RESULTS: And some river thoughts
I dont agree he jsut calls with a small full house. He capped the turn, not you, thus you have not proven to him yet you have a boat.
Vs. check calling. When behind to boat you lose 2BB more. When behind to straigh you lose 1BB more. I think when behind to flush you lose 2BB more (but you can argue only 1BB). When ahead (which is only to smaller trips or donk stuff) you gain 1 bet - but only when he doesn't check behind (probably unlikley, but not impossible if he starts thinking on the river). NO WAY you are ahead > 2/3 here (lets assume the chance of straight is countered by the chance he checks behind). In fact, even if a reraise is not possible, I am not so sure you are ahead here>50%.
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#29
07-06-2005, 07:58 PM
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Re: Scare card gets there - That\'s a good thing right?
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red"> I really dislike the preflop call. The limper would have to be pretty bad to make it right. </font> K5 is certainly playable against a random big blind hand and what if the limper is very predictable? [/ QUOTE ] K5 is definitely playable against a random BB hand (in fact, I'd be raising it if it's folded to me in the SB). And it's playable if the limper is bad, which is what it sounds like you're telling me.
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#30
07-06-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: Scare card gets there - That\'s a good thing right?
[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">Now, when the BB raises, you decide to 3-bet. I would like to know why. If this is a value play, I would perceive it to be pretty slim. </font> You're correct the reason for posting this hand was mainly because I was interested in comments about the river play, but I'll try to address your question about the flop: An A53 flop would be a very standard steal play for a sb. Very often he will pick up a pot uncontested against a random big blind hand and an UTG limper. A good big blind (or limper), will realize this and might often try to re-steal. So if you're the sb, just calling a raise or folding to a raise is not automatic. Especially when you have 2nd pair/best kicker. Another reason to 3 bet is that if you are against a pocket pair such as 77, etc., you are correct to call after he raises. Yet, if there is any chance a 3-bet from you might convince him to fold his pocket pair on the turn, it is certainly worth it to do so. Don't forget there are a lot of overcards which might come to his pair. Lastly, you should sometimes 3-bet the flop for meta-game considerations. I don't necessarily want him folding next time when I really do have an ace or better. I also want to send a message that it can get expensive for him to try and outplay me if all he has is a small pair, etc. So as you are correct that this play could easily be a -EV taken in an isolated incident. But if used rarely and with good judgement, I believe it can be +EV over the long run. [/ QUOTE ] I think you described exactly what I was trying to say in my post about this flop 3-bet play being right occasionally. You just described it better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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