Squeeze-ish Play... Any good?

[A_PLUS]

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I don't have alot of confidence in getting to any specific ranges without having seen any of the prior hands.

I think there is zero % chance UTG folds and most of the time its 4 ways, and some of the time its 3 ways.

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How can you not be able to give a hand range, but be ablet o know with 100% certainty that he wont fold?

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Is hero 25% in the center pot. Maybe, its hard to move up and down in multiway pots. Is hero a clear favorite? Probably not.

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If you wait for a spot where you are a clear favorite, your 600+ chips will be much less, and essentially worthless relative to the blinds.


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As to our styles being different, I have never seen you play, and its presumptuous for you to think my game is w/t.

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Unless your play completely contradicts your advice, our tournament philosophies are night and day. I say push, you say fold, etc, etc.

Quite possible I am a LAG idiot and you are a genius, but our styles are VERY different

[Sluss]

I like this play better if a) the stacks are deeper or b) I have a very tight image.

If I have been getting no decent cards in no decent spots and lost most of my chips on AK vs A9 (when A9 rivered two pair) that was shown down. I might try it. If UTG was someone who would open to steal from a tight player, then saw all of those callers and figures there is no way he is ahead of me.

I think this is +CEV vs all of the callers and -CEV vs. UTG. So there is a pretty good shot I muck this unless my image is really tight and I think UTG knows that.

[DireWolf]

Alot of people are saying they would like this hand better if stacks were deeper. I think thats a given, but still doesn't mean this isn't a +ev play, maybe just less of one.

Here are my arguments
1)hero is risking 625 to win ~1500. Against the range 88+ and AJ+ hero is 2-1. Obviously reads help here alot, but your not always gunna have reads. Pushing here against UTG here is +ev since your odds are a bit better than 2-1.

2)the two cold callers most likely have a hand range that is worst than UTG since there was no reraise. So if either of these players come along, it is a good thing.

3)Since it is party poker, you will sometimes get a donk who either has a horrible hand, or folds a hand they should call with.

4)you don't want to go into the 50-100 level with only 600 chips.

[Sam T.]

Later in the tournament or with AK, I don't mind this, but I honestly don't think you have much folding equity here, and that dramatically undermines the value of the play. Unless this is a table full of rocks (which seems unlikely given the action seen here), you're probably going to get called down by more than one player.

-UTG because: he's already shown strength from EP, he would be horribly short-stacked if he folded, and Party players hate to fold after putting in the first raise. It is a sleight against their manhood.

-MP1 and/or MP3 because of massive pot-odds, and they've got big stacks.

AJ against three random hands wins 35% of the time, which in light of the odds is better than great, except that you aren't up against three random hands.

Re-raising with this hand in position is a viable play, but only if your raise will thin the field, and leave you enough chips to play post-flop if your initial raise is called. Niether condition seems to apply here.

FWIW, I agree with the camp that says you are far too likely to be dominated for my taste. Sure UTG could be on AT, KQ, or mid-pockets, but absent a read that seems a bit optimistic. As for the folks that follow, you could easily be looking at AQ, or a weak-tighty with AK who want to see if his hand hits before committing all his chips. But I've been surprised before.

Sam

[Jman28]

Firstly, I know this isn't exactly a squeeze play as evidence by my title.

Looking back, I'm still not sure about the move at all. I think a fold might be better.

As for the actual hand. UTG called and the other two players folded. UTG turned up T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and my hand held up.

If I had known what kind of player UTG was before this hand, the play would've been much clearer. Thanks for the replies.

[A_PLUS]

Not to be results oriented, but can we at least agree that AT is firmly in the raising range, and that there is a possibility that our push gets us heads up?