Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold the turn but bet/3-bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's rarely raising the river when I come alive with a donkbet on the river. It's doubtful he can beat a hand like KT (that I'm representing) unless he flopped a set, and it's more likely he has a hand that he'll bet and call a raise with than one he'll raise.

I think the check-raise is the right move here. Yes, he'll call a bet (unless he was on a diamond draw), but he'll call a check-raise just as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason for bet/3-betting is to keep him from taking a free showdown which so many live players at the Commerce are prone to do. I haven't played the 9/18, but I have played the 6/12 and watched the 9/18 and I see people missing value bets in these games all the time.

[private joker]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
You just answered your own question there. Live players are passive i think more then 50% of the time it gets checked thru and you kick yourself for missing a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying they don't value bet. I'm saying they don't raise without the nuts or close to it. He obviously likes his hand after 3-betting the flop and declining the free card on the turn. But does he like it enough to raise? I didn't think so. I think he liked it enough to get in one more value bet.

[Hybrid_11]

It comes down to your reads, your the one at the table. I just do not see on this scary board betting with something he would not raise. I truly believe more then 50% that he checks thru. Im assuming you dissagree because the c/r worked but im just giving my opinoin like i said u were the one there if you believed the c/r works more 50% of the time or more then u made the right decision

[shant]

I agree that a lot of 9/18 Commerce players miss value bets, but he likes his hand enough that I think he will bet, but not raise a donkbet, so I like the checkraise.