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#21
06-30-2005, 04:54 AM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
Right. You need to make 1SB more than if you had raised preflop. That is actually what is being said.
I don't think that is unreasonable to expect. In fact, it is argued that you could play the hand better postflop absent raising preflop, and reasons why have been stated. Even then, we are ignoring all the problems with playing in a raised pot post-flop that have to do with reverse-implied odds. "You give up far too much." "You have a huge edge" How much? 1SB. But what can you gain? Going to bed now. Thanks for the discussion to those who offered it. 
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#23
06-30-2005, 10:19 AM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
I think you're wrong about the 22-23% equity in the hand...
For a few reasons. 1) This is showdown equity, and has absolutely nothing to do with your chances of actually winning. Pokerstove equity is neat and all, but it doesn't turn into cash in the bank unless you're an NLHE player. 2) This is Jen Harman talking about how to play holdem. In cases where there's 6 limpers TO HER, she may not have 23% equity here... There's probably some really nice hands coming along here. Some of those players are going to play really well post-flop too. --Dave.
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#24
06-30-2005, 10:45 AM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
[ QUOTE ]
I think you're wrong about the 22-23% equity in the hand... For a few reasons. 1) This is showdown equity, and has absolutely nothing to do with your chances of actually winning. Pokerstove equity is neat and all, but it doesn't turn into cash in the bank unless you're an NLHE player. 2) This is Jen Harman talking about how to play holdem. In cases where there's 6 limpers TO HER, she may not have 23% equity here... There's probably some really nice hands coming along here. Some of those players are going to play really well post-flop too. --Dave. [/ QUOTE ] I'll give an example of this. The pot is 6 SB on the flop. Someone bets into you. You have a gutshot, no other draws. The pot is now 7:1. Your odds of hitting that gutshot by the river is something like 6.5:1, but you still can't call, based on pot odds (not talking about implied odds here). This is why I don't like Stove Equity.
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#25
06-30-2005, 10:51 AM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It does, specifically if "6 players limp in". But I think that the advice, if it is wrong, is not obviously so. It requires some thought and analysis. [/ QUOTE ] This idea in HEPFAP is more applicable when people are limping reasonable hands like 66, T9s, etc. When people at this limit are limping crap like J7o, you have too much equity preflop not to push. [/ QUOTE ]
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#27
06-30-2005, 10:55 AM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
[ QUOTE ]
I'll give an example of this. The pot is 6 SB on the flop. Someone bets into you. You have a gutshot, no other draws. The pot is now 7:1. Your odds of hitting that gutshot by the river is something like 6.5:1, but you still can't call, based on pot odds. This is why I don't like Stove Equity. [/ QUOTE ] Heh. This is a perfect example. Yes, PokerStove generates equity values. And yes, you cannot use equity as your single determinant in choosing your next action. But, if you have the nut gutshot on a rainbow board, say KQ on an ATx board, and your call will close the action, you should definatly call. You aren't calling because you have enough equity though, you are calling for implied odds. It's important to remember three things when analyzing your play with tools like PokerStove. First, equity is a useful piece of information. Second, equity isn't everything. Third, everything else is important as well. Just because equity might not be the most useful piece of information for the current situation doesn't mean that the correct action is to do the opposite of what it suggests. - Andrew www.pokerstove.com
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#28
06-30-2005, 12:00 PM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
Edit: Sorry, I'm out of context. I though you were talking about this assuming you *DID* raise preflop, not assuming you did *NOT* raise it preflop.
[ QUOTE ] That means that 2/3 of the time, at least, you will not like your hand on the flop. It means you won't be seeing a turn. That throws equity off considerably. ... The evaluation preflop of what your situation will look like postflop should be a strong motivator for your raise vs. call decisions. Pushing equity all the time often fails to take into account reverse implied odds, as well as the frequent (at very loose games especially) times you won't even see a turn for 1 SB. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] The pot preflop after you raise is going to be about 15 SB, and you're *NOT* seeing the turn with overcards for 1 SB? That's a bigger mistake than not raising preflop. The balance of implied odds and reverse implied odds is very difficult to measure in these situations. However, I suspect that the balance favors implied odds as long as you're not chasing to the river with just overcards against some heavy action. Here's a fun exercise: Given that you have AQo and 6 limpers, what's the probability of somebody else having Ax, the x falling on the flop, *AND* the A falling on the turn? This will approximate the probability of actually being dominated on the flop drawing to your ace. If you can do that, you can do dominated in your ace or your queen. This doesn't account for everything, but it does account for the most common situations where you are reverse dominated. You *MUST* remember that all poker books all are aimed at a specific audience and a specific game style. *EVERY* book you read must be scrutinized for the type of game you play. You've got to consider how villains play preflop, on the flop, on the turn, and on the river. Taking *ANY* book as a how-to-play-poker manual will ultimately leave you short of your potential. (But taking them as suggestions on how-to-THINK-poker manuals is a good thing.)
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#29
06-30-2005, 12:01 PM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
Nice hand.
-DeathDonkey
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#30
06-30-2005, 12:16 PM
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Re: An AQ hand inspired from SS2
[ QUOTE ]
Curious what you guys think. Both plays are worth questioning imo. You have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 players limp and you call on the Button. SB folds BB checks. Flop is T-6-7 rainbow. Somebody bets, say MP1 after two checks. Hero folds. Doesn't matter if there was a caller between the bet or not. Comments? [/ QUOTE ] Given that hero didn't raise preflop, I think this is a reasonable fold.
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