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#21
06-30-2005, 05:28 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
"An 11% PFR is opening with around 20% of his hands in MP3. For your edification, that's something like A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+, 66+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo+."
That's simply not true when the player is 14% VPIP and a rock like this guy was. Plus, you are not considering the cold call enough. 
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#22
06-30-2005, 05:47 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
"An 11% PFR is opening with around 20% of his hands in MP3. For your edification, that's something like A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+, 66+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo+." That's simply not true when the player is 14% VPIP and a rock like this guy was. Plus, you are not considering the cold call enough. [/ QUOTE ] Do you have a range here? You are aware that a 14%VPIP/11%PFR is not a rock at all, right? Someone raising 11% of their hands, NOT discounting for position (which is a huge error), is raising approximately the following: ATo-AKo, A9s-AKs, 77-AA, KQo, QTs+, KTs+. Someone who is normally an 11% PFR is generally expanding their handrange quite a bit from MP3. Feel free to disagree with that statement, but if you do, you're wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The coldcaller's range is a bit trickier, but it is unlikely that he'd coldcall with AA/KK unless you have a read on him that you're not providing here. More common SB coldcalling hands have already been mentioned, especially when we start getting into the "semi-defense" category. If you want to provide a more accurate range for SB, I'd love to hear it, but I can just about guarantee you that with AKo you still have more equity in this pot than the other two players. Why are you so convinced these two players (who are not rocks, by any stretch of the imagination) have AA and/or KK, and if you were that convinced, why didn't you fold? Rob Rob
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#23
06-30-2005, 05:58 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
"I can just about guarantee you that with AKo you still have more equity in this pot than the other two players."
Totally unclear, particularly given the SB's cold call. They'd both have to have worse aces or broadways. Unlikely. "Why are you so convinced these two players (who are not rocks, by any stretch of the imagination) have AA and/or KK, and if you were that convinced, why didn't you fold?" I wasn't convinced, so I called. It was a concern, hence why I did not re-raise. I was also concerned about QQ, JJ, 1010, and, after the flop, AQ, A-10, and KJ. I'm sorry, but this hand is not nearly as clear as you are making it out to be, on any street, and your calculations are not nearly as decisive as you make them out to be. The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. The SB's cold call is a much, much more limited range, maybe even only group 1 hands. In that position, with AK out of position facing two strong players, I believe the right play is to see if the flop hits you and punch the gas if the conditions are favourable. They were not.
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#24
06-30-2005, 05:59 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. [/ QUOTE ] The PFR's range is broader than that. Mathematically, I already outlined what the "top 11%" of hands are. He's raising more hands than that from MP3. Here's a strictly 11% range: 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KJo+ Before you tell me I'm wrong again, give me an estimate for SB's range. AA and KK are less likely due to his aggression preflop -- it is likely but not certain that he would 3-bet with those hands. If we say he'll "defend" his SB with 8% of his hands, that's 88-AA, AJo+, ATs+. Against two opponents with that range of hands, your preflop equity is 37.5%. Rob
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#25
06-30-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way ...
I'm firmly with QTip and Entity on this one. You MUST 3-bet PF. Not doing so is like standing up and shouting out you don't like money.
Seriously. I can kinda see why you might want to not raise the flop, but I still would, even though a lot of turn cards might not be the best for your hand. Given that, you must raise the donk-bet by the SB. You can't see monsters everywhere you look, especially against people who are aggressive and trying to put a move on you. Play back with your strongest hands, especially with this one. Did you ever think that MP3 raised the turn for a free showdown? I bet the river 99% of the time here. As QTip said, any SB who cold-calls there just plain sucks. Just my thoughts.
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#26
06-30-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. [/ QUOTE ] The PFR's range is broader than that. Mathematically, I already outlined what the "top 11%" of hands are. He's raising more hands than that from MP3. Here's a strictly 11% range: 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KJo+ Before you tell me I'm wrong again, give me an estimate for SB's range. AA and KK are less likely due to his aggression preflop -- it is likely but not certain that he would 3-bet with those hands. If we say he'll "defend" his SB with 8% of his hands, that's 88-AA, AJo+, ATs+. Against two opponents with that range of hands, your preflop equity is 37.5%. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I still think you do not fully appreciate how tight these players were, based on your top 11% calculations. I did not have enough hands with them to have any faith in that calculation. What I could have faith in though was the fact that I had not once in 4 hours at the table seen either one show anything but big broadways and high pairs down. So basically you are expecting me to push a very thin (and possibly non-existent) PF equity advantage against two players that have a good chance of being ahead of me, out of position against a raise. That does not seem wise to me.
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#27
06-30-2005, 06:26 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
Seriously man, we do appriciate how tight these players are. I am just over 16 VPIP and 9 PRF. I'm on the tight end of acceptable tight. I open there with a wide range of hands. If I saw someone call my PFR raise with AKo, I would have only one word to write in the notes: Passive.
If you want our advice, take it. Entity is one of the best posters on this forum and he's doing his best to help you out. He's put down the math and gone well beyond the call of duty to help you out, but you're convinced you're right. Just saying, listen to the responses if you post instead of always jumping to the defense. Just my thoughts.
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#28
06-30-2005, 06:26 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. [/ QUOTE ] The PFR's range is broader than that. Mathematically, I already outlined what the "top 11%" of hands are. He's raising more hands than that from MP3. Here's a strictly 11% range: 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KJo+ Before you tell me I'm wrong again, give me an estimate for SB's range. AA and KK are less likely due to his aggression preflop -- it is likely but not certain that he would 3-bet with those hands. If we say he'll "defend" his SB with 8% of his hands, that's 88-AA, AJo+, ATs+. Against two opponents with that range of hands, your preflop equity is 37.5%. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I still think you do not fully appreciate how tight these players were, based on your top 11% calculations. I did not have enough hands with them to have any faith in that calculation. What I could have faith in though was the fact that I had not once in 4 hours at the table seen either one show anything but big broadways and high pairs down. So basically you are expecting me to push a very thin (and possibly non-existent) PF equity advantage against two players that have a good chance of being ahead of me, out of position against a raise. That does not seem wise to me. [/ QUOTE ] Did you post this hand because you were sure you played it perfectly and wanted us to all see how awesome you were?
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#29
06-30-2005, 11:20 PM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. [/ QUOTE ] The PFR's range is broader than that. Mathematically, I already outlined what the "top 11%" of hands are. He's raising more hands than that from MP3. Here's a strictly 11% range: 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KJo+ Before you tell me I'm wrong again, give me an estimate for SB's range. AA and KK are less likely due to his aggression preflop -- it is likely but not certain that he would 3-bet with those hands. If we say he'll "defend" his SB with 8% of his hands, that's 88-AA, AJo+, ATs+. Against two opponents with that range of hands, your preflop equity is 37.5%. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I still think you do not fully appreciate how tight these players were, based on your top 11% calculations. I did not have enough hands with them to have any faith in that calculation. What I could have faith in though was the fact that I had not once in 4 hours at the table seen either one show anything but big broadways and high pairs down. So basically you are expecting me to push a very thin (and possibly non-existent) PF equity advantage against two players that have a good chance of being ahead of me, out of position against a raise. That does not seem wise to me. [/ QUOTE ] Did you post this hand because you were sure you played it perfectly and wanted us to all see how awesome you were? [/ QUOTE ] No, but I think your analysis is flawed.
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#30
07-01-2005, 12:50 AM
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Re: AK BB with two very good players, TPTK check calls the whole way .
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The PFR's range includes broadway and down to 99. [/ QUOTE ] The PFR's range is broader than that. Mathematically, I already outlined what the "top 11%" of hands are. He's raising more hands than that from MP3. Here's a strictly 11% range: 99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KJo+ Before you tell me I'm wrong again, give me an estimate for SB's range. AA and KK are less likely due to his aggression preflop -- it is likely but not certain that he would 3-bet with those hands. If we say he'll "defend" his SB with 8% of his hands, that's 88-AA, AJo+, ATs+. Against two opponents with that range of hands, your preflop equity is 37.5%. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I still think you do not fully appreciate how tight these players were, based on your top 11% calculations. I did not have enough hands with them to have any faith in that calculation. What I could have faith in though was the fact that I had not once in 4 hours at the table seen either one show anything but big broadways and high pairs down. So basically you are expecting me to push a very thin (and possibly non-existent) PF equity advantage against two players that have a good chance of being ahead of me, out of position against a raise. That does not seem wise to me. [/ QUOTE ] Did you post this hand because you were sure you played it perfectly and wanted us to all see how awesome you were? [/ QUOTE ] No, but I think your analysis is flawed. [/ QUOTE ] I think you may be right, Matador. I'm interested in hearing more.
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