would you rebuy? - Page 3

BoredAtheist · #21 02-05-2003, 12:31 PM

Greg,

I won't dispute whether the rebuy is correct in the original post, as this seems to be a very complicated issue. But I really feel that your blanket statement of "always rebuy" is incorrect. Take this contrived example:

You're in a tournament with one million players. Entry is $22 and gets you T1000. You are allowed a single rebuy, T1000 for $20, at any time during the tournament. You are at the final table with 100M chips (average for the table). The blinds are 1M/2M. Would you rebuy in this situation?

Mackie · #22 02-05-2003, 12:46 PM

If I don't rebuy I still have a below average stack after doubling through twice and fail to knock out the player with AQ. Is that worth the $45? I don't really know.

Of course if I don't hit the ten the rebuy is irrelavent. It could also have been irrelavent if that player didn't happen to get dealt aces on the same hand I get tens. What I'm looking for is some general methodology to help estimate when taking the rebuy is +EV. In this particular tourney it potentially made a significant difference.

ohkanada · #23 02-05-2003, 12:48 PM

Certainly increasing your chips by 20% does not give you a 20% increase chance in winning. Assuming equal skill the more chips you have the more likely you will win. In a perfect world, if you have 35% of the chips you would have a 35% chance to win. But even given that we are not all equal the more chips (percentage wise) you have the more likely you will win. Of course an extra 5% of chips means more to Greg than a newbie but it still improves the newbies chance in winning.

The addon gives you more chips. The percentage may not increase much if any if all other players also take the addon. But if you don't take the addon and others do, then the percentage will drop and therefore you are hurting your position.

In a NL tourney that extra 1000 can easily double or triple in 1 hand. In a limit tourney at lower limits it is harder to use that addon at one time but it is still important in the later stages.

One tourney where I had a tough choice was when I was able to triple my initial stack without taking the rebuy. At the break I have the option to make that rebuy and do the addon. Everyone else at my table is taking any outstanding rebuys and the addon so if I don't, I fall behind plus the one player with a bigger stack is also taking both. I would have been happy to save the $200 but decided to take them and was rewarded in the end.

One tourney where i probably shouldn't have taken the rebuy is when I had started with 1000 and was at about 11k at the rebuy stage. The rebuy only gave me another 1000 so percentage wise it wasn't much. Although in this case it was only $20.

Ken Poklitar

Bozeman · #24 02-05-2003, 12:59 PM

"First of all the addon does not give you a 20% greater chance to win the tournament...This is a common fallacy that chip position is correlated to your chances of winning. If this was true in the WSOP every players odds would be the same on day one which is obviously not the case."

You are making a felonious comparison here. Yes, 1000 chips are worth a different amount to me than you, but for each of us a 29% increase in stack size is a more than 20% increase in winning chance (probably > 28% for a typical tournament). Why do you think it is a fallacy that chip position correlates with winning chances? It is true that it is not the only factor that correlates with winning chance, but that does not negate it's correlation. There may be a few unusual circumstances, like players who play better with a small stack, but by and large this correlation is effectively perfect. Even if you only have .01% cahnce of winning, doubling your stack will significantly increase this chance.

But maybe I should let Greg explain it because he is clearer and more respected,
Craig

Jimbo · #25 02-05-2003, 01:09 PM

Bozeman I respect your opinion a great deal, certainly no less than Gregs. I simply disagree with your logic and showed why with my example. I would not care if you were David Sklansky simply saying something is so does not make it true unless you can show me calculations that justify your position. Until you choose to do that I am forced to believe my position is correct.

Myrtle · #26 02-05-2003, 04:07 PM

Jimbo,

If there were two players seated at the table, both with equal playing ability.....

One had T2000 & the other had T2500 and you HAD to bet on
one of them only, upon whom would you place your bet and why?

Jimbo · #27 02-05-2003, 05:53 PM

I would bet on whoever was the better player. If they were equal I would bet on the player with more chips unless the blinds were at say 200/400 then I would bet on whoever had the button. So the 500 extra chips becomes marginal very easily. We are not discussing heads up but 10 to 100 players where your itty bitty additional amount of chips makes little difference.

Greg (FossilMan) · #28 02-06-2003, 12:13 PM

I am completely at a loss to understand your comment. "First of all the addon does not give you a 20% greater chance to win the tournament. All that will give you a 20% better chance to win would be a sudden 20% increase in your skill. This is a common fallacy that chip position is correlated to your chances of winning."

Also, in your hypothetical you do the math of a rebuy giving you a 20% increase in the chances of winning. Well, in your hypo the rebuy gave the player a 200% increase in stack size, so I would certainly hope it would give them a LOT more than a 20% increase in win rate. Like, 200%?

This lack of agreement on the value of stack size is clearly the base cause of our disagreement in this thread.

I am going to start a new thread, since this one is getting a bit long.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)