The HIV Paradox: A Tale of Two Males

[M2d]

[ QUOTE ]
He will never have sex with another female, nor is he an IV drug user.

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this doesn't preclude Sarah from having affairs and bringing home cooties. How do we know that she doesn't have a closet crack habit and is allowing bisexual man-whores from west hollywood bareback her for the rock?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
BUZZ!!!!

Sorry, but now you're doing it differently. Now you have the percentage she is HIV+ included with the base of the exponential.

OK, I'M CHANGING THIS.

Correct form for Jason:

Bar Skanks
1-(499/500)^20 = 0.0392
0.0392*0.012 = 0.0004710

Whores
1-(499/500)^6 = 0.0119
0.0119*0.04 = 0.0004776

TOTAL
0.0004710+0.0004776 = 0.0949%


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I dont think you can add these probabilities. Because, he only has to get HIV ONCE. Your method includes times he gets it, BOTH from a bar skand AND a prostitute.

BUT, FWIW, that means your method should over estimate the true number. And, mine is higher than yours [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]


(perhaps we will have to wait for Jason to get back from the testing centre (by which I mean Vegas) to check our math)

[gumpzilla]

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Define 'sufficiently safe'

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Your partner gets tested. She doesn't have it. She doesn't take intravenous drugs, she's monogamous. In other words, 0.0001% or some such in terms of likelihood of having HIV. At this point, almost any rates of sexual contact you choose given the numbers for the other guy will lead to vastly different rates of infection.

There's a pretty substantial difference between "somewhat safer" than average and vastly safer than average, and I think the latter can be established.

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He will never have sex with another female, nor is he an IV drug user.

[/ QUOTE ]
this doesn't preclude Sarah from having affairs and bringing home cooties. How do we know that she doesn't have a closet crack habit and is allowing bisexual man-whores from west hollywood bareback her for the rock?

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with the OP at all

[CallMeIshmael]

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0.6% chance of HIV shocks me, a lot. 1/167 americans have HIV?

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Keeping in mind that is only adult americans.

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0.002% chance of getting HIV with an infected partner shocks me too, i thought this would be way higher.

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This is almost never mentioned in the media (probably for good reason), and is why this little math tidbit seems so counterintuitive.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Your partner gets tested. She doesn't have it. She doesn't take intravenous drugs, she's monogamous. In other words, 0.0001% or some such in terms of likelihood of having HIV. At this point, almost any rates of sexual contact you choose given the numbers for the other guy will lead to vastly different rates of infection.

There's a pretty substantial difference between "somewhat safer" than average and vastly safer than average, and I think the latter can be established.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. As soon as someone is tested, or is a virgin/non drug user, you're pretty much in for a safe ride.


The 0.3% estimate I gave for a 'clean' girl was just off the top of my head. I have no idea what a good estimate is.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
0.002% chance of getting HIV with an infected partner shocks me too, i thought this would be way higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost never mentioned in the media (probably for good reason), and is why this little math tidbit seems so counterintuitive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it would really suck if that got out to the gen. public.

-SmileyEH

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He will never have sex with another female, nor is he an IV drug user.

[/ QUOTE ]
this doesn't preclude Sarah from having affairs and bringing home cooties. How do we know that she doesn't have a closet crack habit and is allowing bisexual man-whores from west hollywood bareback her for the rock?

[/ QUOTE ]

This has nothing to do with the OP at all

[/ QUOTE ]


LOL... I knew someone was going to go there.


FWIW, this does have nothing to do with me. I picked the name Sarah, because I dont really know anyone with that name. (though the name Jason was picked to mock the nit)

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
0.002% chance of getting HIV with an infected partner shocks me too, i thought this would be way higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost never mentioned in the media (probably for good reason), and is why this little math tidbit seems so counterintuitive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it would really suck if that got out to the gen. public.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

"The Great Homecoming F[/i]uck Fantasy"

[blendedsuit]

theres no way this is correct. [ QUOTE ]

The probability of someone contracting HIV through unprotected sex with an HIV-postitve partner is 0.002 (This is the upper bound, taken from source)

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I looked at the study.