15/30 JTs in a mixed field - Page 3

ResidentParanoid · #21 06-22-2005, 10:33 AM

No one commented on whether just calling the turn and folding the river unimproved is a better line.

On the turn, here are my three options:

1. Raise the turn with option of checking through on river unimproved (cost 2BB).

2. Call the turn, with plan to call the river unimproved (cost 2BB).

3. Call the turn, with plan to fold the river umimproved (cost 1BB).

Which is best here? Do you see any other options?

dbecham · #22 06-22-2005, 10:46 AM

like i said before i think you have to call this river. If it didnt pair the board i would have no problem folding but this card could have negated one of SB's two pair.

MattiasL · #23 06-22-2005, 12:05 PM

If you just call turn, the river decision is much harder. If we assume turn call - SB river bet - UTG fold, the final pot odds would be 14:1. Do you win this 7% of the time? It depends on the player read, but against a passive player I could fold this. Against many players I would not even consider a fold.

I think that only the fact that you want to call the river is what makes the turn raise a reasonable play.

The obvious risk is of course a 3bet from SB. A simplified attempt to calculate the EV:

First we calculate the cost of getting 3bet:
We assume that a 3bet simply costs you one extra bet when you miss (since you are now 100% sure that you are beat when you miss and SB bets the river. This could be a bit unclear if you hit the 10). And if you win you collect 2 BB (UTG folds turn, SB check/call river).

So 10 outs (9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 10/J not counted) are 10/46 to win 2BB and 36/46 to lose 1BB. The cost of a 3 bet is 16/46 BB.

If you do not get 3bet, the cost is the same if you miss and you can get 1 extra BB when you hit. So you gain 10/46 here (the 10 may well be good also, giving you more outs).

So the play is +EV as long as you do not get 3bet more than about 40% of the time. That seems to be very Ok against a passive player.

(I am aware that the calculations above are far from exact, but I think the answer is close to correct)

MattiasL · #24 06-22-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If you do not get 3bet, the cost is the same if you miss and you can get 1 extra BB when you hit. So you gain 10/46 here (the 10 may well be good also, giving you more outs).

So the play is +EV as long as you do not get 3bet more than about 40% of the time. That seems to be very Ok against a passive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. You get 2 more BB on the turn with no 3bet. So you can be 3bet about 60% of the time and still have +EV according to this logic.

ResidentParanoid · #25 06-22-2005, 12:27 PM

Just quickly reviewed the odds/EV calculations, but that agrees with my intuition at the time, that it was an easy 3-bet on the turn vs a passive player.

MattiasL · #26 06-22-2005, 01:10 PM

Yes. At the table you could do it quicker:
1. I will call the river UI
2. This means a raise is +EV as long as I am not 3bet
3. A 3bet from this player is improbable

ResidentParanoid · #27 06-22-2005, 02:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. At the table you could do it quicker:
1. I will call the river UI
2. This means a raise is +EV as long as I am not 3bet
3. A 3bet from this player is improbable

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. The only fairly close decision is 1, but with the pot getting large, even that is a fairly quick decision.