Ed Miller Is Wrong

[iraise50]

With your first post you go to great lengths to seem interesting, intelligent and controversial. Ed Miller makes sense and has been teaching people to play quite effectively. He's made my own game much better and I think that until you have a little, tiny piece of clout yourself a statement like that should be written more like "Could Ed Miller be wrong here?" OR...."I don't understand Ed Miller's thoughts in this situation" something....more humble. Wanker off.

[zkzkz]

Thanks, this article is very helpful.

I intentionally tried to put an evocative subject in the hopes of getting replies. I guess I got more than I bargained for. Two or three insightful replies and dozens of people who failed reading comprehension 101.

[OrianasDaad]

Tournaments almost require some degree of luck to win.

Having basically a 1-2 shot to get a 10x stack will help alleviate much of the early luck.

If having a 10x stack increases your chances of placing higher in the money more than 30% of the time, then it's more $EV than folding.

Despite the disparaging of KW's limit HE book, I have found one piece of advice invaluable. It involves thinking about your hand in that position (both on the table and relative to the betting) for the rest of your poker life. I've expanded upon it somewhat, but it helps me think in terms of the long-run.

If that occurance ever happens to me, then I'll certainly call.

It's an interesting theoretical question, though. The unlikelyness of the described event means that the difference between calling and folding isn't a major mistake either way.

[Ed Miller]

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But he misses an important detail. The $20,000 gain is in tournament chips. It has absolutely <font color="red">*NO*</font> intrinsic value.

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I didn't miss that detail at all. The whole tournament chapter harps on the notion that chips change value.

[ QUOTE ]
The <font color="red">only</font> value those chips have at all is in the increased chance of winning the tournament that they give you. How much of an increased chance of winning a tournament does having 10x everyone's else's stack on the second hand? It sure ain't gonna be 10x their chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you so sure that getting 10x the chips doesn't improve your winning chances by 10x? If the tournament were winner-take-all, that's EXACTLY what it would do. In a tournament with a prize structure, it may not be exact, but it's still in the ballpark. That's why I used the less-specific, "More than $20,000" than a calculated number.

Here's an approximation you can use to analyze these situations:

The further you are from the prizes, the more tournament chips behave like cash. That is, as long as the prizes are so far off that it "looks" like just a single prize to you, then chips aren't changing value much at all.

For instance, five players left in a three-place-paying sit 'n go... chips change value a lot.

6,600 players left in the WSOP main event... chips behave roughly like cash. Even if you get ten peoples' chips. If there were infinitely many people, they'd be exactly like cash.

[Ed Miller]

[ QUOTE ]
So hypothetical: you're in a tournament with 100 people and you think you're the best player there. You figure you have about a 10% chance of winning.

Would you still call someone all-in on the first hand and a 60% chance of winning?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the scenario in my book AT ALL. My book lists the first hand of the WSOP main event. It's not an arbitrary choice.

[Ed Miller]

[ QUOTE ]
I intentionally tried to put an evocative subject in the hopes of getting replies.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got me to reply. But in general I don't like being told I'm wrong when I'm not.

[Havok]

I'm sorry, but speaking from experience Ed Miller is 100% correct. I was in an online tournament where in one of the first few hands something very similar came up, and I chose to go all in and my aces held up. Only 3 other playes besides myself. The other holdings were kings, queens, and 9's. This win enabled me to have a large enough stack to play the game I wanted to play, and I ended up 4th in a large multi-table tournament. Sometimes you have to take chances to get ahead. It is after all gambling, but passing up aces, and increasing my stack never. I've had aces cracked and been knocked out of tournaments before and never regretted it, thats poker. You have to have the courage to go for it all when you have a chance. And anyone that can fold pocket aces (in my opinion) is the kind of weak tight player I'll bluff often to progress further while they let the blinds eat them away.

Enough said.......ANYONE AGREE!!!!!