Good fold or deserves a call?

[Sinnister]

Wow guys I have been playing poker for a long time and i am surprised I asked such a newb question. It was a huge mistake I just thought in my head he has aces and i am a dog. HUGE MISTAKE I agree now I forgot about set potential.


Brain fart

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

You would have odds to call the flop for one thing.

[davelin]

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lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then you have to play poker. What are your reads of this opponent, would he cap say with something like TT or AKs? 12% pre-flop raising is a pretty wide ranging of raising hands although it says nothing about capping hands.

[Rev. Good Will]

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Villian is a TAG 23%/12%

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12% of hands raised != AA, KK, and QQ only

you need this

your getting good enough odds for a set even if he did

EDIT - whoops! he cold-capped, NVM.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

You would have odds to call the flop for one thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, not really getting something like 1:15. I don't like your backdoor draw.

[einbert]

Well he did limp-cap, I would say that his range might be
{QQ-AA, AKs}
but the truth is there is no telling because we don't know what hands he will go for a limp-reraise with. For all we know he just decided to get goofy with 99 or AJs.

[einbert]

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Eh, not really getting something like 1:15. I don't like your backdoor draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has the best hand here some portion of the time as well.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol so true, but lets say i miss and flop is the same?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then you have to play poker. What are your reads of this opponent, would he cap say with something like TT or AKs? 12% pre-flop raising is a pretty wide ranging of raising hands although it says nothing about capping hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Granted he has 12% PFR, but I doubt he is limp-capping with anything less than AA or KK (and very infrequently AKs)

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eh, not really getting something like 1:15. I don't like your backdoor draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think hero has the best hand here some portion of the time as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, yes that may be true. When you said odds to call, I inferred that you meant you were trying to hit your 2-outer.

[ReptileHouse]

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It doesn't matter if he had Aces, do you see why?

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I'll give that a shot.

With JJ and a backdoor flush draw, I have about 3.5 outs or so as a redraw if I'm behind right now, plus I have an overpair which may well be good already. That's good enough odds to call with a pot this size.

Now to read the rest of the thread to see if I'm on target...