Flopped the 2nd nut straight vs imposing 2+2 player - Page 3

Jocke_F · #21 06-15-2005, 03:35 PM

This is a call I think. I wouldn't expect anyone decent to play a set like that, its also hard to see a nut straight play like this, I would expect him to raise after utg with that as well, since if you just call the UTG raise, many of the turn cards can either kill his action or make someone a possible boat.

Garland · #22 06-15-2005, 10:26 PM

I folded. With the all-in player, and a good 2+2 player, and all the aggression, I had to start putting players on hands. Obviously both opponents have better than one pair. Suppose UTG+1 has a straight, then I have about 50/50 main pot equity vs UTG+1 alone on 97, and I'm drawing to a Q if he has Q9. So I have to be "optimistic" and hope he has two pair or a set.

If this is true, then CO's range of hands have narrowed somewhat if UTG+1 has two pair or a set. If CO has a set, it probably is 88 or TT as JJ he would probably raise with his preflop raise % stat. But since I'm "putting" UTG+1 on two pair (probably JT or 8T, then CO's set combinations diminish). But I believe he CO isn't so tight he wouldn't necessarily automatically fold Q9o in CO, so there are 12 combinations of these hands and not necessarily 3 with Q9s. I fully expect him to fold as good a hand as JT with my extra aggression on the flop, but when he pushed, Q9 screamed in my head. And since I figured I was drawing to a chop to a Q, I made the fold. I thought there was at least a 75% chance he had that specific hand and the other 25% either chop chop or has outs if the board pairs.

UTG+1 had J8o. CO had TT.

It's funny. If CO played this how I thought he should have played it by 3-betting the flop, I would have reraised and been pot committed. If CO wasn't a 2+2er with those stats, I probably would have pushed as well.

I was wondering if anyone could find the "tough fold", and I'm happy to hear that at least several posters either could fold or consider folding. However, I'm still wondering if it's necessary to make the call knowing what I knew. It's hard to do all those equity calculations with all the permutations of hands I was figuring online.

Thanks for everyone's thoughts,

Garland

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Garland (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($233.75)
UTG+2 ($582)
MP1 ($566.05)
MP2 ($600)
MP3 ($1456.7)
CO ($604.8)
Button ($184)
SB ($594)
Garland ($600)
UTG ($671.5)

Preflop: Garland is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $6, 2 folds, MP2 calls $6, MP3 calls $6, CO calls $6, 2 folds, Garland checks.

Flop: ($33) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Garland bets $28, UTG+1 raises to $80, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $80, Garland raises to $220, UTG+1 calls $227.75 (All-In), CO raises $598.80 (All-In), Garland folds.

Turn: ($1079.55) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($1079.55) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $1079.55
Main Pot: $708.50, between UTG+1 and CO. > Pot won by CO ($708.50).
Pot 2: $371.05, returned to CO.

Results below:
UTG+1 has Jh 8s (two pair, jacks and eights).
CO has Ts Td (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: CO wins $1079.55.

Finite_Risk · #23 06-15-2005, 10:47 PM

This is one of the best hand analyses I've seen...well done

Dr. StrangeloveX · #24 06-15-2005, 11:18 PM

instacall.

Ulysses · #25 06-16-2005, 02:00 AM

Time to move down in levels 'til you're ready to put the chips in the middle.

Garland · #26 06-16-2005, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Time to move down in levels 'til you're ready to put the chips in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the assumption is I'm playing with scared money, and I'm not. I need to make the right decisions about putting my chips in the middle whether I'm playing NL200, NL400 or NL600.

Feel free to criticize the decision, but I don't think the advice to move down in limits is warranted.

Garland

Mike Cuneo · #27 06-16-2005, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the best hand analyses I've seen...well done

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy fold preflop for sure.

SpaceAce · #28 06-16-2005, 04:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Feel free to criticize the decision, but I don't think the advice to move down in limits is warranted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe El Diablo shouldn't have put that the way he did but, man, that sure looks scared. You have the second nuts and it's not like there's four to a flush and you have the King or something else where the second nuts don't count for much; your hand is extremely solid, here.

I also can't believe the number of people who thought you were beat in this hand. I have read the results but they don't matter. I can't see this situation as anything but a very easy call.

SpaceAce

Triumph36 · #29 06-16-2005, 07:36 AM

You must admit that Villain played it very oddly though. Call/reraise usually means the nuts, and there's no huge draw (e.g. flush draw with two overs) that it also could be. However, Villain might've figured that since no player had yet called in the hand, no one had any of the (many) straight outs that could ruin Villain's set, and did not raise.

Leptyne · #30 06-16-2005, 03:13 PM

Great post and great reply. Poker is all about making good decisions. Its the process that counts. Its being able to keep your head when the pressure's on and go through the process step by step. You can't judge these kind of decisions by results. It's easy to say now when you see the results, and it's easy to say "you shoulda" but we (and you) can't duplicate the situation and the information you had, so it's pointless for us (or you) to criticize the actual decision. Don't waste time trying to re-analyze your decision. Keep analyzing them and making them just like you did this one.