Daily Hand Post: a decision with KQs and a flush

[damaniac]

What about the flop cap? Do you think we get a free card enough to justify it? I don't know what the math is on that, but I'd be surprised if, given the action, we get one very often.

[SippinSoma]

AcKh., assuming an average 2/4 player.

[GuyOnTilt]

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I like the raise not for winning UI, but getting the CO to fold significantly increases his chances of winning if a K or Q drops.

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Hands CO would fold that would make a difference this way: KK and QQ. If CO has exactly KK AND folds it AND UTG has exactly a pocket pair below QQ that did not hit a set, he picks up 4 extra outs. If CO has exactly QQ AND folds it AND UTG has exactly a pocket pair below QQ that did not hit a set, he picks up 1 extra out. Given all the qualifiers and their extreme unliklihood and the fact that we hold KQ, which cuts down the chances of CO having KK or QQ by 50%, this reason for raising is no greater than negligible.

GoT

[nfscreech]

bet/call

[admiralfluff]

his raise is folding COs possible KK or QQ holdings. The raise will win him the pot very rarely, and on it's own is not worth a whole SB. Couple it with the flush draw, and possibility of getting a free card, and I like it.

[damaniac]

Along with GoT's reasoning as to why it is incredibly thin to begin with, you have to factor in those (probably many) times you instead get three-bet. And if UTG has an A (which he will a good portion of the time) it doesn't matter anyway.

[gaming_mouse]

Check.

There are 3 combinations of AA and 9 combinations of AK, so other things being equal AK is more likely. But other things are not equal. Only an uncommonly aggressive player takes this line with AK, while this is the way that most people will play AA, IMO. And to bet here you risk 2 to win 1.


Add in the (admittedly unlikely) chance that you're up against a better flush and I think the check is pretty easy.

gm

[Jake (The Snake)]

I think checking is correct too. I think this concept...

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And to bet here you risk 2 to win 1.


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is extremely important and something that is often overlooked. Since there's no chance you are going to fold to a raise (right?) then you have to be good here more than 66% of the time to make betting correct since villain is going to raise virtually 100% of the time with a better hand.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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I'm not raising the flop

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incorrect, he got the CO to fold, and on the slight chance that no one has an ace, he could win UI

plus, value

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i hope you're kidding

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[Mike Gallo]

Very interesting hand. At first glance it looks like a clear value bet, however ....lets work backwards....

River ....UTG checks, I.... lets go to the turn to decide UTG bets, I raise, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls.

What range of hands would he play like this on the turn? Utg has played this like a big hand, a big draw or both.

On to the flop action, 2c, Ax, 7c

UTG bets, I raise, CO folds, UTG 3-bets, I cap, UTG calls I do not like to look for monsters under the bed, however this looks like AA or Ax suited clubs. Discount AK AQ A10 clubs. He could have AJc or A-xc. He also could have 89 clubs or AK AJ AQ with the Ace of trump.

Lets go preflop UTG calls, I raise, 4 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG caps, I call, CO calls.

What reasoning did he have for the limp reraise? A thinking player will limp reraise to punish the loose raisers and weak limpers. The live player will do it with any two cards to build a pot. The live player could limp reraise with a hand like 78 clubs, however in the games I play the limp reraise usually means AA or KK.

Unless this player will limp reraise with hands other then Aces I think you should certainly check the river. He appears like a sneaky enough player that would have the audacity to check raise the river after catching his hand, or with the nut flush.

Lacking any information on the villian, I check.