WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker

[HoldingFolding]

MLG, I was on the phone with betfair (on an unrelated matter) and they advised me as follows:

[ QUOTE ]
Hi *****,

Further to our phone call earlier regarding the omission of Michael
Goodman from the market of the Poker tournament, I have been advised
that you need to call our helpdesk on 08700110444 and they can take
all the details and forward them to the correct people to find out if
they think that this person is appropriate to include in the
'running' as it were.

Hope this answers your question.

Kind regards,

**********
Betfair



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Not sure if you'd be considered appropriate...

[Tyler Durden]

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You think Hellmuth has a better shot than Ivey? I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Ivey's still a young whippersnapper. Hellmuth has the years of experience, superior intelligence, and attitude. As much of a incomplete human being as he may be, the kid can play poker. I don't dispute that Ivey is the best of "our" generation, but Hellmuth is still better. Best in poker, IMHO. How old is Ivey, anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil Hellmuth's intelligence is superior to that of Phil Ivey? That's a ridiculous statement isn't it? How would you even begin to prove that?

[locutus2002]

I break the tournament into 3 phases.

Phase III: 100 players or less.

Any player surviving to this level has the skills to have a 1/100 chance of winning. Small adjustments can be made for better players, based on prior achievements, but the marginal difference between Phil and Phil is small.

Phase II Less than 1000 players greater than 100

One in ten players advance from phase II to Phase III. I estimate that a top tier pro could advance no more than 2-2.5 times out of 10. Most of the I-donkeys are gone.

Phase I: more than 1000 players less than 10,000

Top pros get through 70% of the time.
Advanced players get through 50% of the time.
Intermediate players get through 20% of the time.
Almost no beginners pony up 10K.

a) Phil Ivey 1/100 X 2.5/10 X 7/10 = ~1/350
b) Phil Hellmuth 1/100 X 2.5/10 X 7/10 = ~1/350
c) MLG 1/100 X 1.5/10 X 5/10 = 1/800
d) Me 1/100 X .3/10 X 2.5/10 = 1/8000

I might give the best pros like Hellmuth a bump to 1/300 for his prior wins.

I think its interesting to note that in the past we have had many repeat winners. (They did have much smaller fields, and fewer top flight pros).

According to my model there are 30-50 marquee names that have a 1/350 chance of winning, so I think ~1/10 times we will have a big name winner.

[gumpzilla]

I'm interested what people think the odds are that a player who qualified through PokerStars will win. It seems like they'll probably send ~1000 of the 6600 slots, and a fair number of those are probably going to be pretty skilled players. 4:1 sound good?

[mts]

2 to 3 making the final table? Yeah that sounds about right.