Very Standard Fold

[microbet]

Small stack now has 1000 chips. The medium stacks only have 2000 chips. The big stack just announced that he is going to push with absolutely any two.

The medium stacks will now be correct in opening up their calling standards a lot.

[Jason Strasser]

Durron,

Vs. a decent crop of players and such, I think I'd do whatever I can to take all of the villain's chips in this hand. I'd probably put him on the three step plan to having no chips on the flop. (bet flop turn river). I doubt you can really destroy people on the bubble with the small stack around because blinds arent so big. There are quite a few chips here you can make, and its not likely you can make them up by bullying people on the bubble.

-Jason

[Sabrazack]

The more i think about this the more i want to call. If i call and loose, the bubble is preserved and all the l337 2+2ers in the middle stacks will think im a total donk for not preserving the bubble and maybe be more weary of calling me. And if i win, well, i win 751 chips [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[LethalRose]

im not a sng player but could someone clarify what exactly the advantage of folding here for 1 chip...

Im hoping this isnt a correct strategy in an MTT..

[ChuckyB]

Perhaps I'm missing something/everything but why would I ever fold in this situation for one chip with 1001 on the line?
Is it to preserve a tight image? So people still think my moves carry some weight this late in the game? Or is to make them think I'm a total fish?

Where I'm at right now, I can believe anyone would give up 1001:1 pot odds pre-flop.

[lastchance]

Again, because you can exploit the tight medium stacks on the bubble.

But I'm never making this laydown simply because my opponents are calling with AT when I push any 2.

[curtains]

Probably once you make this play, UTG should move allin with any 2 cards, since basically all 3 players will fold such a large majority of the time. You fold because you have already shown you want the bubble to stay alive, BB folds because of the button being short on chips, and button folds most hands because maybe someone will call UTG and bust him (not to mention the fact that it seems youve given him the green light to steal from you on the bubble).

Personally I don't fold here but ok it's hard to quantifiably measure how many chips it's worth to have this bubble situation. I just don't think it's worth it, yes sometimes you steal all the blinds, but really I've had these situations come up unintentionally so often and things just didn't work as planned. It's beautiful when it does, but really by just calling you have great chances to win first place anyway, it just psychologically feels like you had more control those times when you steal your way all the way to 8000 chips and then win (note that you are almost never going to steal your way to higher than 8000, so you are making this fold where if you called you might end the hand with 5500 chips...just for the chance that you can just steal everyones blinds and get to like 7000-8000, which won't happen as often as everyone seems to think.) I'd rather not pass up such a clearly +CEV play here.

[microbet]

Next hand if it is folded around to SB and SB pushes, BB will be +$EV to call with

ATs+, AJ+, 66+, KQs (7.7% of hands)

That is still a pretty tight range, but I suspect if you told BB that you push with any two (which you just did) they would open their calling range further.

I tried to take this analysis further, but it gets too long to go into further hands.

How -$EV is folding? From about 1% to about 3.6% of the pool depending on SB's pushing range and the hand you are holding.

I'm just putting some stuff up for consideration. I understand the point, but think this may be marginal. If the blinds were 150/300 and the SB had 301 chips, I think it would be more clear and at 100/200 - SB with 201 it would be obvious.

[citanul]

i think that many of the posters who play the 200s would make this play when it was actually correct, but i don't know for sure if i like your example as a spot where it is actually correct.

you have to consider the maximum amount of chips that you're going to get from the bubble, and also the amount of chips your giving up.

the number of chips you're giving up is some random function of basically how good your hand is, since your opponent is going to be all in with any two.

on the other hand, once you make the stacks 1000 2000 2000 5000, and the guy with 1000 is likely going to be all in the next hand also this happens:

either on the next hand you call and win, you call and lose, or someone else calls and wins or calls and loses, or you all fold:

situations: (rounded figures)

you call and win: 6k 2k 2k, but nothing at all gained by your previous fold.

you call and lose: 4k 2k 2k 2k, i'm not loving this, and you're utg.

someone else calls and wins: 5k 3k 2k. well, you're in the money, but well, again, you gained nothing by folding in that spot except maybe some intergame information that your opponents will think that you're a "bubble king" or something

someone else calls and loses: 5k 2k 2k 1k. well, this is nice, since it's the same situation as you were in before the hand, and the fact that the guy who's now in the bb is the guy with the 2nd most chips is Very good for you.

everyone folds (less rounded figures) 5k, 1750, 1750, 1500. again, not my favorite situation. other people are going to be pushing, and they're going to be calling. they're simply so short, all of them, relative to the blinds, that most of the standard competition at the 200s is NOT getting out of the way "just because it's the bubble."

personally i think that its VERY unlikely that even a player who is very good at keeping the bubble alive and working it will be able to extract say, 1500 chips from that bubble. it's probably pretty unlikely that they'll be able to extract 1000 more chips either. a big part of this is that there really isn't that big a difference in stack sizes between the short stacks. so i don't think that it's all that justifiable to fold for 1 chip, getting 1000 to 1, since well:

if you win the hand, you've got 1000 chips more of equity than if you fold
if you lose the hand, you're in the same situation you were going to fold your way into.

citanul

[curtains]

btw I think the idea of keeping the bubble alive by passing up huge +EV plays is severely overrated, but everyone on 2+2 tells me I'm wrong

(except I asked ZeeJustin on IM just to make sure I wasn't crazy and he said he thinks it's basically stupid and only does it when the decision is only slightly +EV, which clearly isn't the case here. So okay, I'm pretty sure he is also in the camp of this concept being overrated if that means anything to anyone. Problem is that everytime anyone mentions it on 2+2 you get 10 people immediately posting how brilliant a strategy it is.)


PS - Also if it's so #@^%@^ brilliant then why did the BB call me with A8s for 3500 chips when I pushed from cutoff with 5500 and both other players had 800 chips in a $200 today!