Does Full Tilt know something we dont?

[CountDuckula]

[ QUOTE ]
From their website regarding the conditions of the $10M:

Full Tilt Poker will pay out the $10,000,000 prize in equal $1,000,000 installments over a 10-year period. Players must agree to a 10-year exclusive endorsement contract with Full Tilt Poker allowing us to use their name, voice, and likeness in all future online and offline promotions. Additionally, Player agrees to play a minimum of 10 hours per week at Full Tilt Poker.com, and to attend any promotional events or tournaments that Full Tilt Poker deems appropriate. Player will be ineligible to promote any other online or offline poker-related company

Kevin...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm.... For a mill a year, I could live with those terms. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Mike

[Yeknom58]

How do you quietly give someone like 4 million bucks?

[MicroBob]

I didn't think there were any problems with 'deals' from the WSOP's point of view.

But I do agree that it could possibly void the Full-tilt deal.

[Jurollo]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think there were any problems with 'deals' from the WSOP's point of view.

But I do agree that it could possibly void the Full-tilt deal.

[/ QUOTE ]
The most interesting part of a deal would be how ESPN would handle it. Likely they would lie and either rig a hand or make them play it out with some money tossed in from ESPN.
~Justin

[Siegmund]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would the insurer care about standard deviation? The insurer should be primarily concerned about its EV, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... that's what insurers are in business of selling: reductions in standard deviation. It's quite normal in most lines of business to charge according to how much service you are providing. An insurance premium can be broken down in auto-repair terms to a "parts cost" (EV of the policy) and "labor cost" (his charge for accepting the risk you don't want). Group health insurance is cheaper than individual policies and it's not because groups of people are healthier.

The insurer "cares about" standard deviation in the sense that he cares about his risk of ruin.

You may recall last year there was a Pepsi promotion to give away a billion dollars (with very low probability - something like getting the winning entry, then winning a quiz show contest, then winning a random number drawing, I forget the details) ... a promotion so big it would literally have broken the bank of almost any insurer that took it on. As I recall Hamman talked Warren Buffet into backing it since SCA Promotions (and any other company selling gaming prize insurance) couldn't have afforded it on their own. Pepsi paid dearly for the privilege.

A promotion company doesn't care much at all about SD when they insure prizes up to say $100,000 because they have the bankroll survive some swings at that level, and any small contest is going to get charged a relatively small and fixed service fee on top of the EV... they care very much about it for very large prizes, and make sure to only take bets stacked very heavily in their favor.

Incidentally I am not disagreeing with you that Full Tilt's insurance premium is probably costing over $100,000 -- only fussing about the details of how you arrived at the estimate. (I'd guess that it'd be something like 100k to insure 50 entrants but 2500 and not just 2000 to insure one.)