Like the flush draw line

[stlip]

To me this is an easy flop raise, but it doesn't have that much to do with the flush draw. The flush will take care of itself. If it comes in, we expect to win, so building the pot either through a raise or through a smooth call and encouraging overcalls are both good lines.

But we've also got a variety of other ways to win the pot and they benefit from a smaller number of competitors so that's what tips the scales. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the the various runner runner hands we could make here that would beat an A pair, two pair, a set of Ks or Qs or a straight. We've also taken for granted that villain or someone else who will stay in the pot has an A, which is obviously incredibly likely, but since we have the protection of our strong flush draw to make a raise +EV we ought to go ahead and thin the field to boost the chances of winning by some other fluke.

[tinhat]

Seriously, no offense, but raising (to thin or not) because of a runner-runner possiblitiy is (IMO) dumb.

If hero had paired the flop, THAT would've tipped the scale. But this hand without the flush in the face of action is worhless...

$0.02

Mike

[tinhat]

[ QUOTE ]
No, the point isn't to win the pot ASAP. (That simply isn't going to happen.) You're not trying to knock people out, you're hoping that as many call as possible. All I am saying is that you really only need 2 people minimum to make a re-raise profitable, and I think given the texture of the board and the number of opponents, a 3-bet is how I would play it.

I can see calling to keep customers since all we have is a draw, but it's not the play I would make.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know we stand no chance of winning ASAP (a.k.a. thinning the field) - my point was that that's the only argument I could see for forcing ppl to cc 3 bets. I understand that we only require two callers - in this specific circumstance I think that's risking the maximum in exchange for winning the mimimum. And this isn't a matter of keeping customers. Maybe this is just an honest disagreement; it would be nice to know if there's one right answer.

The advantages of calling vs. rr in this specific circumstance
are IMM compelling. Risking our many solid advantages as a by-product of a rr with no purpose other than a risky gamble for a couple more small bets is absurd (IMO). I see it as something along the lines of not pushing for the maximum now if doing so later is more profitable.

rr in this specific cirumstance holds the strong possibility of chilling the action if we hit the turn. It seems reasonable to consider we may fold everyone except pfr (which could be good or bad). If we had better position relative to the flop action so far I'd be 100% for rr. But we don't. If this were $0.5/1 I'd probably be 100% for rr. But it's not. Even if $1/2 is only a little tighter you stand a much higher chance of folding people looking at three bets (you already lost one or two just to the initial bet). But for what purpose?

I'm just not seeing why rr'ing is superior to calling in this situation. Is this just a gamble for small bets that people will call three cold, and we have the fallback that we only needed two anyway? If so, it doesn't strike me as the most profitable gamble given what I've already stated.

Maybe this is a situation where both sides are right. But I believe calling is *more* right. I still wish somebody could settle it definitively...

Mike

[SocialWelfareIV]

The answer to this question really depends on how awful the players yet to act -- the SB, BB, UTG+1, and UTG+2 are, because you really need 3 or more callers to make a 3-bet profitable. A couple of posts have said that you have 35% equity here; that is really not true. There is a 35% chance that you will make your flush. Sometimes your flush will be beaten by a higher flush. A villain that has a set will sometimes suck out a full house (and so will a villain with two pair. I would estimate that you're winning this hand 33% of the time AT BEST. That said, if you're raise is going to cut knock out all but two players, it would be better to just call.