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#21
06-01-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: Do you make this fold vs Chef?
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh...tough spot, but the more I think about it the more I like the fold He played it like a monster - but there is 2 Js out so he isnt rolled up. Do you have any read on seat 3 does chef respect him? I have been pretty successfuly avoiding Chef thus far = would he be this agg on 4th with a flush draw? I think Chef has a hand like (AxA [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])JK9 on 5th more then he has a made flush in either case your in bad shape. [/ QUOTE ] that's the hand I'd guess, so I'm not folding, but like beta said, if seat 3 is a good player, that changes things, still, how can you put him on 3 to a flush to start? edit: didn't see your post, so wasn't cheating... if you put chef on this hand, I wouldn't fold unless you saw her catch another heart on 6, (obviously if you miss your flush), or you get trapped between the other two betting heavy on 7th. And even if chef missed her flush on 7th, she might still try and raise the bad player to convince you to fold your weak flush, vs. chef's river 2 pair. 
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#22
06-01-2005, 05:56 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
[ QUOTE ]
lstream, This was a good fold. Lets think of a range of hands to put chef on. Given his observed actions up until 5th here is what I'm assuming Pocket Aces or a flush draw (that is AJ or QJ high and 8hThJh) AhAx - 2 ways AA w/o h - 1 way A high flush draw - 9 ways Q high flush draw - 8 ways JT8h - 1 way If we make these assumptions about chef on 5th here is where your equity stands. AhAx - .20 AxAx - .33 A high flush - .002 Q high flush - .045 JT8h - .043 So 18 of 21 ways you are getting messed up BAD. REALLY REALLY BAD 2 of the 21 ways you are losing just slightly on EV (against AhAx) and 1 way you actually make a profit. Good fold [/ QUOTE ] sorry to come late to the party and post 2 in a row, but I just can't see how you're putting chef on a flush draw. Raising into a bunch of high cards on 3rd. It's just a weird move. Now I can see thatt high flush maybe raising on 4, and maybe the occasional changeup raise on 3 with the flush draw, but unless you know this is a standard raise for chef, aces are at least as common as the flush draw.
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#23
06-01-2005, 11:19 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
[ QUOTE ]
but I just can't see how you're putting chef on a flush draw. Raising into a bunch of high cards on 3rd. It's just a weird move [/ QUOTE ] Soma, Raising with a 100% live AJ high 3 flush is pretty much an automatic play on 3rd for anyone who has half a clue. Raising with a 4 flush on 4th is pretty automatic as well, espically when you won't be forcing another player to call 2 bets cold (thus making a fold likely...you don't want opponents to fold when you have a 4 flush in 4 cards). You might make the augument that a 4 flush won't raise into open K's...but that isn't what you are saying. If you think raising with an A high flush draw on 3rd is strange you need to seriously reevaluate your play.
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#25
06-02-2005, 02:16 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think raising a paired door card on fourth with a flush draw is automatic by any means. [/ QUOTE ] I know, I said :: [ QUOTE ] You might make the augument that a 4 flush won't raise into open K's [/ QUOTE ] I was under the impression that Soma was thinking that in general people don't bet 4 flushes in 4 cards. And I think that is pretty automatic. Maybe not in this exact case. But in general??? Of course they do. The reason we can assume that chef might have a flush draw is that we can also assume that chef is smart enough to know that KK doesn't have trip Ks and that when he raises he'll get 2 callers.
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#26
06-02-2005, 03:11 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
[ QUOTE ]
The reason we can assume that chef might have a flush draw is that we can also assume that chef is smart enough to know that KK doesn't have trip Ks and that when he raises he'll get 2 callers. [/ QUOTE ] Well, he obviously was pretty sure for some reason, but I see no way he can actually *know* this.
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#27
06-02-2005, 04:19 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The reason we can assume that chef might have a flush draw is that we can also assume that chef is smart enough to know that KK doesn't have trip Ks and that when he raises he'll get 2 callers. [/ QUOTE ] Well, he obviously was pretty sure for some reason, but I see no way he can actually *know* this. [/ QUOTE ] The K didn't raise on 3rd. If you have K's and a dead Jack raises before you aren't pretty likely to raise?? Then on 4th chef catches a King. So by 4th chef knows that the guy with the K in the door definetly doesn't have rolled Ks (which might account for a smooth call on 3rd) And then when he bets the max on 4th we have another indication that he doesn't have a K in the hole...because trip Ks might just bet 5 looking to get action. So we've seen 2 actions. And both would make you lean towards "he doesn't have a K in the hole". So, you're right that we can't *know* but we can make a very good guess. Chef can *know* he'll get 2 callers because if stream was going to fold he would have done so already
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#28
06-04-2005, 12:28 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
First -- allow me to introduce myself. I am TheIronChef. I heard there was a post on here about a hand I played and decided to look it up. I like the exchange on this hand. First, Istream I am not stalking you. You just happen to be on a good table and I switch as often as I deem appropriate based on the games. You typically are on good ones. So, kudos to you for picking good games. Game selection is very important part of winning. Wouldn't you all say?
Lastly, I do remember this hand. I raised for the reasons many of you have assumed. I had pocket aces with a live ace of heart flush draw. They guy who paired his kings was an average to bad player. I did what I thought was correct to narrow the field if two pair would win it in the end, or if one pair ended up being the best or charge the most for anyone coming with a lower flush draw. Those are my thoughts. And just so you know...If I've beaten you...I am a girl!
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#30
06-04-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Math about the fold
I want to make one more point about this hand, which I failed to do. You need to examine my position on the hand. No only did I think the player with kings was a bad player. I did not put him on trips. Now I can never really know that as this is a game of missing information. But, I think my assumption was reasonable.
He was likely to stay high on the hand and if I fell high...i.e catching the ace...I would definitely have a strong hand if not the best hand. If not a good possibility for the best redraw. When I hit the heart, I believe I have the best pair or the possibility of making a flush or the best two pair. My hearts were extremely live and mathematically I would likely complete to the best hand. I am certainly not saying that it is the right play in all cases, but it was in this one, in my opinion or I wouldn't have done it.
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