So I folded AK on the bubble

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think its a clear call by any means. But I also think its clearly not an easy fold. I ran some math and you can argue with the specifics, but the general conclusions is that its about a push, so to me that says its not a clear anything.

Assume the following -- 50.30.20 payout.
If you fold this hand your chances of finishing
1=20%
2=40%
3=25%
4=15%

If you call your chances are

1=40%
2=20%
3=5%
4=35%

These were the first numbers I picked out of the air, and as it happens the EV was dead even.

I really disagree with your QQ comment. You are a favorite to 70%+ of his hands in that situation. I think QQ is a clear call.

I am very curious to understand, given the above math, why everyone thinks its so clear to fold? I dont think folding is dumb, I just dont think its a no brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming that having 48% of the chips gives you a 61.5% of first place. What am I missing?

GG

[holdem2000]

For starters I don't think your first set of numbers is that accurate, but I'll assume it is. What do you think your chance of winning the hand is if you call? Maybe 60% vs. his distribution? Then if you call your chances of 1st are under 27%, and your chances of 4th are at least 40%. Even in the best case if you're in this spot:
1 = 27%
2 = 33%
3 = 0%
4 = 40%

You're still taking a hit of over .6 buyins if you call.

[The Yugoslavian]

Sorry, your math is wrong. Also, I'm not sure how you disagree with my QQ comment as I never said I'd fold it...depends on the opponent.

Here is some quick math for you that should explain why it's a clear fold of AK:

Your $EV is 29% of prize pool if you fold...if you call and win it's 39.45% of the prize pool. You need to win 73.5% of the time at showdown to make this break even $EV-wise going by ICM. AK is ~66% favorite vs. any two (which only *some* big stacks will be pushing here).

This is would be an *awful* call...it's not close to close.

So, yes, it's a very, very, very easy fold.

If you can put your opponent on exactly any two I would call with JJ+...I don't think you can do that here so I'd fold JJ....I would most likely be calling with QQ but folding it is not nearly as big of a mistake as calling with AK would be.

Yugoslav

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
These were the first numbers I picked out of the air

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't count as math.

There is at least one model for assigning value to chips in a tournament for which a lot of math has been done. It's called the Independent Chip Model (ICM). There are calculators for ICM as well has calculators that evaluate how likely particular hands, such as AK, are to win against given ranges of hands. There is even a calculator that combines both features for some situations (this one) in SNGs. Using this math, AK is a clear fold.

The hand range calculations pretty much can't be argued with. ICM is an approximation and doesn't take everything into account. But, it is a lot better than picking things out of the air.

If you have any questions, look here.

[microbet]

Well, I want to argue with Yugo about QQ (it is a fold), but I'm also thinking about Curtains well founded concern that people will overgeneralize and start making huge mistakes folding QQ.

I just want to submit, as a rule of thumb, that you need to be very very careful about making calls for all of your chips, on the bubble, when you have a decent stack, and there is another player who is not yet involved in the hand (has folded or is yet to act) who has a very small stack (both compared to you and the blinds).

I know that's not really short enough for a rule of thumb, but it's not really that hard of a concept. I'll try something more eloquent:

Only monsters call for all their chips when someone else's bubble is about to pop.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I want to argue with Yugo about QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it? My gut says it's close...the math does too. Frankly I think it's player dependent.

FWIW, if I'm in the big stack here and you're sitting there with QQ then I'm almost certain you should call. I think it's close with QQ.

I don't have access to easty's thingy and I'm too lazy to do any more math...what range would the pusher have to be on to make QQ a call? I guess I was thinking this was a higher level STT than it really is....most pushing ranges won't be close to what mine is in the lower buyins.

Yugoslav

[microbet]

It has to be pretty wide. I'll check with the program later. I ran it before with [22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+] and QQ was a very clear fold.

I also looked at it from UTGs point of view and with the ranges I selected (very tight for button, very loose for SB, doesn't matter for BB) it was a push in the medium range, like T8o or so, but I don't think many will push that far, and I think QQ will still be a slight fold even if you assume UTG plays perfectly in accordance with ICM.

[The Yugoslavian]

Nevermind then, I'm sold. I was putting UTG on a bastardized top 40%ish of hands or so and it looked like a call so I figured it was either a close fold or close call depending on opponent....folding QQ sounds v good here now. Practically the problem is that if a couple details in the situation change I think a call with QQ is good....so I don't think calling with it can be that big of a mistake.

However, on a separate issue, I think there is possibly more FE vs. the SB for UTG than you may be thinking (even though there shouldn't be) and so UTG can push a v wide range profitably.

Anyway, my main point was to anzlyze the OP situation...which isn't close to being close...calling is like taking your lighter to your wallet.

Yugoslav

[oxymoron]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have access to easty's thingy

[/ QUOTE ]

The rumors are not true then?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have access to easty's thingy

[/ QUOTE ]

The rumors are not true then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kickin' it in Oaktown on a different computer than I normally have. If I was here for a significant amount of time I'd ask Eastbay for another reg code or something to use the program on multiple computers maybe...I dunno. Hell, what I really should do is just meet up with him for a drink, but I'm booked solid from a couple of hours until I leave.

I always have wanted to meet Eastbay though. I'm pretty sure it'd go down likea this:

'Easty!!!! What up homey!!! You are the dope-diggity-bomb-doozy!'

'Umm....shut up...stop posting and mis-paraphrasing me and my exactitude geniusness. That's all I really wanted to say....nice meeting you, bye.'

Yugoslav