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#22
05-19-2005, 12:17 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
Ding!
The lights came on! Thanks Matt! You rule! Is there a difference between a winrate and bb/100 though? Someone once said something that made me think there was...perhaps they were taking about an hourly winrate though compared to a bb/100 winrate, which I do understand. 
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#23
05-19-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The reason people think variance changes as EV goes up is because people tend to think of variance as "variance from even", when it's actually variance from winrate. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't grasp that. Would you hand feed me, please? Break it down a bit more...Smash it into baby food.... [/ QUOTE ] Let me have a go. People are more sensitive to losing money than they are to winning less money than expected. Your estimate of standard deviation doesn't care though. All it cares about is were you above or below expectation and by how much. In concrete terms: If you are a 1BB/100 player and you lose 37BB in 1000 hands, it seems worse than if you are a 5BB/100 player and you win 3BB in 1000 hands. But (all else equal) those events are the same statistically.
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#24
05-19-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
Ding! The lights came on! Thanks Matt! You rule! Is there a difference between a winrate and bb/100 though? Someone once said something that made me think there was...perhaps they were taking about an hourly winrate though compared to a bb/100 winrate, which I do understand. [/ QUOTE ] Winrate is how much you win. BB/100 is a way of measuring your winrate. As is BB/hand, or SB/50. If I drew a venn diagram, Winrate would be a big circle with little circles inside it for BB/100, etc etc.
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#25
05-19-2005, 12:20 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 'Higher winrate = lower probability of a losing session' is a very different statement from "higher winrate = lower standard error after N hands." The former is clearly true. The second is not. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. I believe Kevin got the terminoloy mixed up. Though, his point was clear. [/ QUOTE ] Not to me, but I understand now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#26
05-19-2005, 12:21 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ding! The lights came on! Thanks Matt! You rule! Is there a difference between a winrate and bb/100 though? Someone once said something that made me think there was...perhaps they were taking about an hourly winrate though compared to a bb/100 winrate, which I do understand. [/ QUOTE ] Winrate is how much you win. BB/100 is a way of measuring your winrate. As is BB/hand, or SB/50. If I drew a venn diagram, Winrate would be a big circle with little circles inside it for BB/100, etc etc. [/ QUOTE ] So, it's correct to say that my winrate is $1000....or some monetary value?
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#27
05-19-2005, 12:24 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
So, it's correct to say that my winrate is $1000....or some monetary value? [/ QUOTE ] No. A rate is an amount per another amount. (miles per gallon, dollars per hour, BB per 100 hands, etc.)
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#28
05-19-2005, 12:25 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The reason people think variance changes as EV goes up is because people tend to think of variance as "variance from even", when it's actually variance from winrate. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't grasp that. Would you hand feed me, please? Break it down a bit more...Smash it into baby food.... [/ QUOTE ] Let me have a go. People are more sensitive to losing money than they are to winning less money than expected. Your estimate of standard deviation doesn't care though. All it cares about is were you above or below expectation and by how much. In concrete terms: If you are a 1BB/100 player and you lose 37BB in 1000 hands, it seems worse than if you are a 5BB/100 player and you win 3BB in 1000 hands. But (all else equal) those events are the same statistically. [/ QUOTE ] I'm getting there...thanks. I'm going to reread everything here, including my OP [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img], and then I'll come back to clarify my understanding...thanks again.
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#29
05-19-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So, it's correct to say that my winrate is $1000....or some monetary value? [/ QUOTE ] No. A rate is an amount per another amount. (miles per gallon, dollars per hour, BB per 100 hands, etc.) [/ QUOTE ] That's what I was thinking, but [ QUOTE ] Winrate is how much you win [/ QUOTE ] threw me for a loop.
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#30
05-19-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Short-Handed Flucuations
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Ding! The lights came on! Thanks Matt! You rule! Is there a difference between a winrate and bb/100 though? Someone once said something that made me think there was...perhaps they were taking about an hourly winrate though compared to a bb/100 winrate, which I do understand. [/ QUOTE ] Winrate is how much you win. BB/100 is a way of measuring your winrate. As is BB/hand, or SB/50. If I drew a venn diagram, Winrate would be a big circle with little circles inside it for BB/100, etc etc. [/ QUOTE ] So, it's correct to say that my winrate is $1000....or some monetary value? [/ QUOTE ] $1000 would be your winnings. $1000/day would be a winrate. The "rate" part of winrate means that it has to be "something" per "something else".
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