5/10 NL, 55 in the SB

[fsuplayer]

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Hi fsu,

I don't get it. You're being offered 1550 to 1000, with the SB fairly likely to come along, right? You have top pair and a draw to the nuts, and you could be up against only TPTK or something similar that you have additional outs against, right? And, the all-in guy could be drawing nearly dead to you if he has a flush draw, right? I'm never folding in this spot.

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this pretty much exactly sums up my thinking at the time. it was an autocall for me that required just a second of thought. SB is a maniac and could have a pretty wide range here, the MP knows that, but isnt completely sane himself, so i thought he could have anything from AQ(although he more likely raises this pf) to two pair, but i thought a draw was more likely, esp. given how fast he moved in.

if SB overcalls with AK or the like, I dont hate it, although i prefer he folds, as I may already be ahead of MP. if he wakes up with AAA, which is pretty unlikely given i have one, then well, i still have outs.

so best case, sb has AK, MP has AQ, but that isnt too likely.

worst case, sb has top set and MP has a st. fl. draw, again, not too likely.

i figured it was most likely something in between, and I called getting 1.5-1 (with a chance of being ahead), or 2.5-1, with a chance of drawing out if the SB calls.


like i said before, this hand wasnt one i thought much about, but another lagish 2+2er said he would muck that in a heartbeat, and I was shocked. so we discussed it more, and still couldnt agree, so i posted it.

funny thing is that i told him not to post at first so opinions dont get swayed/biased, and he said he would most likely have to jump in and save me from all the flaming.


thanks for the all the comments so far. ill post the results later today.

[Yeti]

I was the laggish 2+2er and I still disagree, although the pot odds were slightly better than I initially thought.

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with the SB fairly likely to come along, right?

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I totally disagree with this. Realistically the only hand he's firing out of the SB and calling 2 pushes with is AA, and that is pretty damn unlikely.

If you can put MP on a draw it's a cool call, but more likely he has at least 2pr.

[fsuplayer]

the SB will call here with AK/AQ much more than he folds it IMO. he is a 60/30/2.5 "playing for fun".

900 more for a 2700 pot, i dont think he gets rid of that all that often.

[Leptyne]

When you play the weak-suited ace 71.28% of the time you'll miss the flop entirely.

When you do hit the flop, and hit it well, which includes hitting an Ace or a flush draw, you're a 2.91 : 1 dog to hit this kind of flop (which is what you hit).

If you're not happy hitting an Ace or a flush draw then you're a 26.07 : 1 dog to hit something better.

The point is you got about the best flop you can expect, a nut flush draw. If you're not going to call the bet then don't play the weak-suited Ace.

[gomberg]

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The point is you got about the best flop you can expect, a nut flush draw. If you're not going to call the bet then don't play the weak-suited Ace.

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This is terrible logic. That's like saying if you play JJ, and call a raise, and the flop comes three low cards and there's lots of action to you, you should call or you should fold preflop. This doesn't make any type of sense. Each situation is very different from others even if they have the same flop. That's the beauty of this game - the correct decision is not just based upon your own cards and the board.

[Leptyne]

That's not logic, that's the mathematics of playing the weak-suited Ace.

The logical question is "Am I going to be happy hitting an Ace or a nut-flush draw?". If the answer is no, then you shouldn't be seeing the flop.

I feel like you missed my point when you compare this to JJ mising the flop. This player didn't miss the flop. He hit the flop and hit it well. A better example would be drawing to 22 and making a set. If you hit the flop, and hit it well, and still aren't happy, then why did you see the flop?

It's logical to expect to miss the flop entirely (71.3%). So its also logical to expect a nut flush draw when you do hit the flop. So if the flop hits you with about the best you could expect why is there a problem?

[runnerunner]

There are not 2 outs to the top set. If hero makes 3 aces and villian has a set, villian boats.

[gomberg]

ok - lets work your 22 example. Lets say you call a raise from an ultra-tight player who can't fold a hand - but is very passive usually unless he has the nuts. flop is 26Ar. You love this flop and call a bet from the ulta-tight's AK. The turn is blank. He bets, you raise, and he pushes in for 2x the pot. What you're saying is effectively that if you fold here, you shouldn't be playing 22 for a raise against this tight player preflop in the first place. This just isn't the case though, as you should fold here AND you should play it in the first place. You just wouldn't be happy in this situation - has nothing to do with the math - and this is one of the best flops you could hope for (villain would call you down w/ AK, you have a set, etc.). You're looking at preflop hands too cut and dried.

There's also many other factors such as position, bluffing equity, your read of the opponents, etc. You don't have to go broke every time you hit a good flop... it's all relative value to the opposition here. And you don't need to hit the flop to be involved in a hand.

[LuvDemNutz]

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You don't have to go broke every time you hit a good flop... it's all relative value to the opposition here.

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Well said.

[Yeti]

I'm headsup with the rockiest rock in the world, $10k each, blinds 1/2.

I make it $4 preflop with AA, he calls.

AKK,
he open pushes for $9996.

Let's say I know he will only do this with KK. Guess I shouldn't play AA.

Cmon, bro.