Monstrous pot with Aces

[jtr]

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Well thanks for telling every1 the results...

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Sorry, stupid of me. Glad you got some good feedback regardless.

[radioheadfan]

Given your history with this player, I like the flop reraise, and I like the call of his push. Hope you have a bankroll of at least $600K if you're gonna play against this guy like this.

And nice suckout. How much did you tip the dealer?

[aggie]

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Given your history with this player, I like the flop reraise, and I like the call of his push.

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I respect your opinion....but why?

[kagame]

how can you contradict aggie's well thought out analysis with no supporting arguments?

if hes bluffing, allow him to continue

once you reraise huge he knows youre strong, arent thinking about folding and are trying to protect your hand, and thus will not be bluffing you most of the time

you cant just say "you have history together"

[radioheadfan]

OK. So villian is very capable of making moves against hero. Hero is in his eyes on a very wide range here preflop. So he's calling hero with a wide range as well given his position. So we've established a wide range of hands for both players.

Flop comes down with three small cards. Hero makes what looks like a standard continuation bet. Villian raises in position to take down the pot, b/c he knows villian missed that flop a good percentage of the time. Now hero has a hand, so he has a couple of options, call or raise. The optimal move all depends on what hero thinks villian has. So we'll set up a couple of cases.

Let's suppose villian is on a pure bluff. Assuming this is the case, then are we sure he's gonna keep bluffing at it when we call? By calling villian has to give hero credit for a hand, or at the very least an OESD. If villian is very capable of firing multiple barrels with air, then calling here is correct when hero judges villian to be on complete air. When villian will not fire again on pure air, after seeing resistance from hero, he may shut down, and we may give him a chance to hit a gutshot or OESD straight draw which we'll have to payoff on the turn and or river since there's no way for hero to give him credit for a monster - given his propensity to bluff.

Now say villian has something, but it's behind hero. Say he has a pair w/ backdoor straight possibilities, something like T8s, maybe even with a backdoor flush draw. Now when villian hits two pair on the turn or some weird backdoor draw on the river, hero HAS to pay off a pretty big bet when he plays it passively by calling the flop raise. Since he showed no aggression besides for the PF raise and flop continuation bet, villian is just as likely to bluffing as he is to be betting a hand better than hero on the turn or river.

So the point I'm trying to make is that when hero smooth calls the flop, he's going to have to pay off villian when he catches something to beat hero. I'm arguing that these bets will be much larger when villian has hero beat than when villian is on pure air. And hero will have no choice other than to call these oversized bets when behind b/c villian is very capable of making big bluffs and betting weak hands.

We also have to consider the texture of the board. 682r flop has two OESD straight draws the villian could have. Now when a 4, 5, 9 or T falls on the turn, it could look really innocent, but villian will smoke us when he hits that draw (the money is too damn deep to let him take a look at a cheap turn when he has either of these OESDs).

When villian is simply paired up somewhere on the board, we have no way to tell when he trips it up or his two pairs. We have to pay that off. Again, given his bluff frequency, it's hard to tell the bluffs from the hands that beat us in the absense of physical tells.

Hero is out of position. So when he calls the flop bet, I assume we plan to check the turn. When villian doesn't improve on the turn giving him a free card on the river is a disaster with the money this deep, him having between 5 and 8 outs, and hero not being able to tell which cards beat him.

So given the flop bet and raise, I think hero has to charge villian further to continue on, since hero suspects he is ahead. So how could villian interpret hero's raise? He could very well believe that hero is putting him on a steal and restealing, if that's the case, his play is to push. Or could believe that hero has a strong hand he is ahead of and try to get him all in. Against a player who is a known bluffer/rebluffer, hero is in a tough situation after villian pushes. Depending on hero's read I think he could call or fold.

But smooth-calling and letting villian dictate the action (checking behind on turn or not) and dictating the bet sizes with these huge stacks is a big mistake since I believe a good player would bet more when ahead then when behind, and if hero smooth calls the flop he pretty much has to call any reasonable bet this guy makes on the turn and river.

Also, isn't hero giving away more or less the same information by calling the flop raise than by reraising? (Either way he's saying he has something and won't go away easily)

This is a very complicated hand. With hero being out of position, with a good but vulernerable hand, against a guy who is very capable of big bluffs, with VERY deep money, when we don't know what cards we don't want to see on the turn or river. There are no easy answers here, but I am decidedly AGAINST smooth calling the flop and checking to villian on the turn. I'm not sure what the best line may be, but hopefully I've made clear why I don't like this line.

[technologic]

1800 bb in on the flop with one pair.

nuff said.

[creedofhubris]

Is this profitable?

On the flop, you had an EV of .089.

Leaving aside the shenanigans that get you to your 3K bet, which may or may not be justified, let's just look at the next bet, where he goes all-in for 6000 more. This is where it is clear to me and most of the other posters that you are beat and need to fold. Anyway, you are asked to put in $6000 to win $12000.

Your EV for the final pot is .089 (18000) = $1602.

So on average you lose about $4400 making that call.

Profitable? No!

[radioheadfan]

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1800 bb in on the flop with one pair.

nuff said.

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These sorts of replies are unacceptable.

As an aside, hero can certainly find a fold after villian's push, I do see a call being correct here some fraction of the time though given this opponent and their history.

I want to restate one firm belief about the hand: hero needs to reraise on the flop. Given that villian pushed after hero's reraise, he can certainly find a fold, and perhaps it should be advocated - but it is certainly not as clear cut as "I refuse to play big pots with one pair" if you want to optimize your EV in a poker game. But I think the hero's reraise is essential on the flop.

This was aggie's suggestion and is the most interesting part of the hand. Whether hero makes the big call on the flop or not has alot to do with his feeling and physical read of villian. We cannot do that for him.

And who the hell said there was anything wrong with playing a 1800BB pot with one pair? Typically, yes, you're getting killed when you do this, but there may be a right time for anything at a no limit table.

The above quote is dispicable in a forum which seeks to talk about the strategy behind a hand.

"Hmm, let me just state something that I've heard over and over again - don't play a big pot with one pair - it must be true in every situation!" Wrong.

[radioheadfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this profitable?

On the flop, you had an EV of .089.

Leaving aside the shenanigans that get you to your 3K bet, which may or may not be justified, let's just look at the next bet, where he goes all-in for 6000 more. This is where it is clear to me and most of the other posters that you are beat and need to fold. Anyway, you are asked to put in $6000 to win $12000.

Your EV for the final pot is .089 (18000) = $1602.

So on average you lose about $4400 making that call.

Profitable? No!

[/ QUOTE ]

A fold to the villian's flop push is clearly reasonable. There may be a time to call here, but I can certainly live with folding every single time here with a pair of aces.

I think the more interesting part of the hand is hero's plan of action after he gets raised on the flop. I personally agree that the best play in the spot is to reraise to about 3K like he did.

Isn't the flop action after villian raises hero the most interesting part?

The all in call is certainly interesting but hero's plan of action after he gets raised to 1K is unambiguously more interesting and difficult in my opinion.

[ggbman]

Sorry man but this is disgusting. The flop is 168 rainbow, he's not pushing a draw! He also limped and didnt re-raise so he doesnt have a big pair. Muck to the big flop raise.