My first $5/$10 post. KK turn protection or flop blunder? - Page 3

7ontheline · #21 05-06-2005, 05:08 PM

Um. . .I thought that was what I was saying. If someone is going to call incorrectly, why even give them a chance to fold? Trap them for two bets rather than facing them with two. I thought the argument was whether you want people to call or fold, and I want them to call. If they don't have outs or proper odds, even better.

ddubois · #22 05-06-2005, 07:31 PM

I don't mind people folding when the pot is big. If I can make them face two cold and hence, face incorrect odds for their 3, 4 or 5 outters, that's the best scenario.

MAxx · #23 05-06-2005, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Um. . .I thought that was what I was saying. If someone is going to call incorrectly, why even give them a chance to fold? Trap them for two bets rather than facing them with two. I thought the argument was whether you want people to call or fold, and I want them to call. If they don't have outs or proper odds, even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

um well this is kinda off on a tangent, but anyway. if OP's line works (meaning bet by hero and raise by zero) gutshots aren't getting correct odds... unless there are multiple coldcalls before mr. gushot's decision.

if you bloat the pot on the flop or trap them on the turn, then they aren't really makeing a mistake.

7ontheline · #24 05-06-2005, 07:47 PM

Ah, after reading this more carefully I see your point. Still, I'd rather the pot get huge and have the other players call. You then might get some more bets on the river from people who call just because the pot is so huge. I see this as wanting to win money, not just pots. I would personally rather take my equity and use it to get more money in on the turn from people who might have folded and possibly more on the river. I guess I want to not give people the chance to fold correctly, as opposed to not let people call correctly.

Um. . .does that last sentence make sense to people who are reading it? It looks awkward to me.

7ontheline · #25 05-06-2005, 07:50 PM

Also, I have a theory question for the turn:

If you c/r the field, everyone puts 2 bets in. If you lead and the LAG raises, everyone who calls puts 2 bets in. With the c/r line, each call that everyone makes is correct in isolation, but if they knew you were going to c/r then they would be putting in too many bets for their gutshot draws. Is this a big difference in the end?

MAxx · #26 05-06-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Um. . .does that last sentence make sense to people who are reading it? It looks awkward to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is awkward as hell, but I understand what you are saying. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

MAxx · #27 05-06-2005, 07:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I have a theory question for the turn:

If you c/r the field, everyone puts 2 bets in. If you lead and the LAG raises, everyone who calls puts 2 bets in. With the c/r line, each call that everyone makes is correct in isolation, but if they knew you were going to c/r then they would be putting in too many bets for their gutshot draws. Is this a big difference in the end?

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be over my head here... but in my opinion they would be armed with better info if they knew you were planning to cr the field. they would then have to weigh what their odds are from a 2bb perspective instead of two indiviual 1BB descisions.

so i think it is/ would be different.

7ontheline · #28 05-06-2005, 08:03 PM

Right. . .but you know you are going to c/r, since we are assuming with good predictability that LAG will bet. So YOU know that they are going to have to call 2 bets, giving them improper odds over all. So, aren't you tricking them into making bad calls? Instead of giving them a chance to make a good fold?

All this theory makes my brain hurt a little.

WarmonkEd · #29 05-06-2005, 09:38 PM

Hey 7ontheline,

You're right, the effective odds on the turn if everyone cold calls 2 vs c/r'ing and having everyone call 2 are the same. But the difference in having the other two guys face 2 BB's is that you're increasing the chances of them folding.

IF the OP had a stronger hand, then the C/R would be the superior play, because as you said, you're tricking them into putting two bets in on the turn when it's clearly a mistake (if they knew what you had). In this particular situation, the OP doesn't have an awesome hand. He has little chance of improving and with so many players still in, their combined outs are dangerous.

So for example (and this is purely hypothetical, I'm giving the opponents hands that they would would probably call a turn bet with):

If the hands were:
k [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] k [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] j [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

And you decide to c/r and everyone stays in, twodimes gives you a 31.5% to win. With everyone calling the turn for 2, you expect to win 18 x 31.5% = 5.6BB

Now if you can get one of the opponents to fold (say the A5o hand), your chances of winning are now 47.4%. You get 2 less BB than before so that's 16 total. 16 x 47.4% = 7.5BB.

You're still gonna win BB if they all stay in, but the extra % win you get from making one or two of them fold compensates for the smaller pot.

7ontheline · #30 05-06-2005, 09:45 PM

Good analysis, but I think your choice of hands is a little too generous to the opponents. I personally think it is more likely that their hands will not have so many combined outs against you. Plus, might a LPP donk call a bet on the river, even with a weak holding? He might, which is one more BB. All this hypothetical stuff is probably over-analysis, but it's interesting.