AK ... chickened out?

[Mister Z]

I'd C/R this flop and then call down from there if 3-bet. A read is pretty key here, but you'll either split or chop the pot with most of the hands he'll cap PF and 3-bet on the flop with.

[MrWookie47]

That was the line I was considering, but I was worried that by betting the flop, I would scare off KK and QQ. In your experience, are those fears unjustified? Would you consider check/calling the flop and leading the turn, with the intention of 3betting?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
What other hands can villain have here that we beat? You think he caps with AQ? Ax? JJ is no longer on the list of things that we beat, and TT will fold right along with KK and QQ. AK is the most likely holding that will cap preflop and will call down a turn check/raise, and we don't beat that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming this guy has 2+2 capping standards. I'm not sure that is a good assumption. AQ and DonkDonk are the hands I think we beat. You never know how many DonkDonk hands a person will cap with. Can you do a baysian? It's actually pretty close I imagine. The J is not a good card for us.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
If I check/raised the turn, I'd expect KK or QQ to just fold, where as they might call a river bet when you bet at them out of the blue.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's okay that he folds KK, QQ. He loses out on his 2 outer. But more importantly you get more from the other hands you beat that will call down.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

IT IS NOT OKAY to fold him, plus "But more importantly you get more from the other hands you beat that will call down." this statement makes no sense because it is HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

Other hands he might have. Like AQ. How much do you lose when he folds the turn exactly? 1 BB on the river? He has nearly .5 BB equity with KK on the turn.

Krishan

[MrWookie47]

There was no aggressive, LAG, loose, maniacal, or any sort of read given. I see many more 0.50/1 players limp AQ than I see cap with AQ. With no read, I think that assuming the range of capping hands as AA-JJ and AK is a good assumption.

Edit: Oh, and congrats on getting married.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
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If I check/raised the turn, I'd expect KK or QQ to just fold, where as they might call a river bet when you bet at them out of the blue.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's okay that he folds KK, QQ. He loses out on his 2 outer. But more importantly you get more from the other hands you beat that will call down.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

IT IS NOT OKAY to fold him, plus "But more importantly you get more from the other hands you beat that will call down." this statement makes no sense because it is HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

Other hands he might have. Like AQ. How much do you lose when he folds the turn exactly? 1 BB on the river? He has nearly .5 BB equity with KK on the turn.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

you know? you guys are right. jam this hand for all it's worth. lower limit players will call all the way down and pay you off. try that a little higher up, and you'll get folded on the turn, if not the flop IMHO.

zeph for some reason assumes a player is a LAG based on nothing...why we're starting there i have no idea. why not just think the guy is a good player until we find out? assuming a LAG is an expensive assumption.

so if he's a LAG and will keep raising even when beat: 20BBs and that's if he is the DUMBEST player ever (figuring no JJ too)

if he's a schmuck and will call down: 7BBs
if he's a smart player and call flop but fold UI on the turn, played the way you guys want to play the hand: 3 BBs

smart player capable of big lay downs: 1sb

smart player played the way it was played: 5 BBs (reraised river not included)

so really you're gaining 2 BBs and that's IF he's a passive schmoe who'll call to the river with KK, QQ. so enjoy your huge extra winnings of 2 BBs...assuming we don't lose to JJ or split.

NOTE: all BBS calculated after preflop action which is a given

[wyoak]

[ QUOTE ]
He has nearly .5 BB equity with KK on the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? And if you're saying what I think you're saying, how do you figure that? He's got more equity with AQ than KK.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
With no read, I think that assuming the range of capping hands as AA-JJ and AK is a good assumption.

Edit: Oh, and congrats on getting married.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good to me. I remember .5/1 being passive preflop in general as well. I also remember there being terrible unidentified donks. Marriage should be fun. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Krishan

[Meech]

<grunch>

PF Looks ok.

Lead the flop. If raised, I'd 3-bet.

I'd have to be convinced that I am against a set/2 pair here to slow down -- otherwise it's rammin & jammin time.

Also, the fact that you have an A descreases the probability that opp has AA. I can't give you the exact math, but....

[TomBrooks]

With six folds, I think UTG might have capped the flop with any big pair and maybe AK. Against an average opponent, I might check/call the flop with the intention of checkraising the turn. I would consider this slowplay because the pot is small and there is only one opponent.

If UTG is very aggressive, I might bet the flop and hope he raises. I don't think I'll checkraise the flop as I'd rather get that in on the turn big bet if possible.

I'm in the mode of thinking I have the best hand or at worst I might be tied for best. I'm trying to do whatever I think will get the most money into the pot in this hand.

Edit: I'm having a bit of a hard time figuring how to get the most money in the pot. A bet of the flop looks like I have a A or 99. A checkraise on the turn looks like I have AJ or JJ. I'm thinking the best default paly might be to bet the flop. Someone with KK, QQ, JJ, or TT might do that anyway looking for information. I'd call a flop raise, bet out on the turn and 3 bet a raise there.

As this hand was played, I definately 3 bet the river.