Help discounting outs

[AlmightyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised that a lot of you guys give full outs to a low flush, I will typically do the same with high broadways but J and lower I give myself 6-8.

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The odds of flush over flush (with both players using two cards) happening aren't that great. Generally, the times you make your flush and lose are counterbalanced by the times you miss your flush and win, so the full 9 outs are attributed.

[aargh57]

First, thanks for this post/exercise. I've been thinking that I may be giving myself too many outs also. Grunching here.

1.
9 spades + 1 bd strt = 10
I further discount the bd strt because the low end (8 or 9) puts a possible made strt on the board already.

2.

9 spades +3 4's=12 (with many opponents (more than 4) I would discount my spades to about 7)

3.
3 4's + 1 five= 4 outs. With many opponents I don't even count the fives as one out.

4.
3 eights, 1 nine, 1 bd flush = 5. Again with many opponents I don't count the nines.

5.
6 to the open end strt + 0.5 to the Jc = 6.5
However, against few opponents I would play this aggresively as you may have the best hand plus your outs.

6.
13 outs I discount the strt + flush because of the paired board and 2 clubs but only by 1 out. I'm not too worried about the 7's because less chance of someone getting a boat with 7's than higher cards and not too worried about the clubs because it came on the turn. However, interested in seing what people have to say about discounting these types of strt/flush draws with paired/2flush boards.

7.
Hmmm, I guess I'd say that this one depends on the strength shown by the other players. Of course, the more in the hand the worse off you are but you probably fold if a club or K falls. So I'd say you have 33 outs. Maybe I'm cooky on this.
Want to clarify this answer by saying that the "outs" I'm counting are actually cards that I'm dodging. I'm assuming I have the best hand (against AK or made flush I'm going to pay him off anyway). So all ten clubs suck plus 2 K's =12.
46-12 =34 good cards for you Take off one for good measure

8.
Had to edit this one as I missed the 7's
I would give 3 to the 7's and to to the T's as I'm on the low end if a T hits. so
3+2=5

Thanks again, I'll read everybody else's and hope I'm somewhere near correct on at least 3 of these.

[Shillx]

When you do weighted equity calculations, you have to consider outs from every angle. One guy once told me that if you flop a straight, you are still "drawing". You are "drawing for blanks". So if someone has a flush draw against you on 4th street, you have 35 outs. You have to consider these when you look at inflection points of a peticular hand (that is, if you should call down or fold against what is assumed to be a stronger hand).

Brad

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
When you do weighted equity calculations, you have to consider outs from every angle. One guy once told me that if you flop a straight, you are still "drawing". You are "drawing for blanks". So if someone has a flush draw against you on 4th street, you have 35 outs. You have to consider these when you look at inflection points of a peticular hand (that is, if you should call down or fold against what is assumed to be a stronger hand).

Brad

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yeah I was confused at first to your post, but it made a lot of sense once I looked closer

[Shillx]

Just to clarify a bit more. I'll setup a hand.

Tightish UTG limps, all fold to you in the BB and you raise A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls.

Flop (4 SB): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets, UTG calls

Turn (3 BB): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero...?

Let's say that his possible range of hands in this spot are a flopped set or AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Should we call down?

Equity Chart:

TTT (3 combos): 2 outs
777 (3): 2
222 (3): 2
AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (1): 35

Total = 10 combos : 53 combo-outs = 5.3 outs = 7.3:1 odds

When UTG raises the turn, we are only getting 6:1 to call, so we can't make this call profitably.

Brad

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify a bit more. I'll setup a hand.

Tightish UTG limps, all fold to you in the BB and you raise A A . UTG calls.

Flop (4 SB): T 7 2

Hero bets, UTG calls

Turn (3 BB): 5

Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero...?

Let's say that his possible range of hands in this spot are a flopped set or AK . Should we call down?

Equity Chart:

TTT (3 combos): 2 outs
777 (3): 2
222 (3): 2
AK (1): 35

Total = 10 combos : 53 combo-outs = 5.3 outs = 7.3:1 odds

When UTG raises the turn, we are only getting 6:1 to call, so we can't make this call profitably.

Brad

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Another eye-opener. Thanks!
D5

[aargh57]

[ QUOTE ]

6.
13 outs I discount the strt + flush because of the paired board and 2 clubs but only by 1 out. I'm not too worried about the 7's because less chance of someone getting a boat with 7's than higher cards and not too worried about the clubs because it came on the turn. However, interested in seing what people have to say about discounting these types of strt/flush draws with paired/2flush boards.



[/ QUOTE ]

Stupid me, this is the same type of hand as #7. I'm more conserned about cards to dodge than outs in this hand.

[BottlesOf]

I don't see how there's any way to answer this without AT LEAST knowing number of opponents (positions and pre flop action are also pretty much needed)

But, I think this is a great exercise and would encourage you or someone to repeat it with this information.

[nomadtla]

This is a good exercise I just posted so I could add it to my faves to look at later.

PS does anyone know a way to add a thread to your faves without posting on it

Nevermind I'm an idiot I figured it out

[BritNewbie]

This is fascinating. Thanks for sharing it.

I'd love to study weighted equity calculations in more detail. Do you know if there are any books that deal with this sort of thing?