Lets discuss this hand - from 350K on Stars

[Jason Strasser]

Without getting into specifics, this math is terrible.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
you're going to look awfully fishy to the uninformed at the table, which will be a nontrivial reduction in your FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement is true, but your opponents should be less willing to push at you with junk since they know they have minimal FE against you which makes the likelihood of getting a walk in the BB much greater - and there's definitely value in that.

Just pointing out the flipside...

Later,
Che

[Seadood228]

I don't think you can use the above calculations because there are too many factors that will affect hero's play in future hands... There are too many variables you've gotta throw in.

I think it's an auto-call as well, and not just based on the numbers. There are a lot of situations that warrant folding in a +EV situation, but this isn't one of them.

You are playing at suicide level blinds and are a long way away from any real payouts.

And as far as 5BB FE and 7BB FE, I really don't think there is that much difference. Most of the larger stacks got to that point because they were willing to gamble, and I don't see another 16k making too much difference to a large stack.

Personally I think people overvalue FE in an MTT once you are in the money. In 90% of these, you have to treat it like it's a mad scramble for chips, meaning you can't pass up on +EV situations (and possibly some -EV ones [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).. There is simply no time.

[EDIT] Chaostrocize makes a good point as well. Calling and showing down 83o can only help your image when you post blinds in the future. I wouldn't be surprised if you earned a walk or two from it, especially with a short stack.

[gumpzilla]

Yep, I should try and refrain from posting when I'm that sleepy.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're going to look awfully fishy to the uninformed at the table, which will be a nontrivial reduction in your FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement is true, but your opponents should be less willing to push at you with junk since they know they have minimal FE against you which makes the likelihood of getting a walk in the BB much greater - and there's definitely value in that.

Just pointing out the flipside...

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this as well. If they see me call with 83o in the BB, might many be less willing to push at me knowing I'm more likely to call with crap than give them the blinds for free?

How much of a factor is this weighing on the side of the call?

-Scott

[Indiana]

Honestly, I may have folded as you did...But after thinking about it , you must call because you are going to have to get lucky to cash well, and why not take a stab at it when its +EV rather than waiting and having to push AJo against 1010 or something where u aren't +EV....Just call and know that you were taking a +EV bet....

Indiana

[SoBeDude]

To the argument that you lose FE when you lose, true. However you are only losing FE that 60% ish percent of the time you lose... Plus when you are at 5bb you still have FE, especially because of the shallow nature of this tournament. How much FE do you have stealing when half the field has less than 5bb???

With a hand like 83o, its probably more like 70%-ish than 60.

And Yes much of the field is short. But I'm not trying to steal against half of the remaining field with less than 5bb. I'm trying to steal against the 3 players to my left, two of which, had very very healthy stacks of over 175K and played very well.

I think stacks that much larger than mine will more liberally call my steals when I have 3BB than when I have 5bb. The push with 3BB looks more desperate than with 5BBs so big stack will tend to call with a wider range of hands.

This is not a trivial consideration IMO.

-Scott

[yecul]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds are 4K/8K, 400 Ante, going up soon .

[/ QUOTE ]

That have any effect on the decision at all?

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
at 5% equity you make 1750 chips every time you call here. If knowing that you theorhetically made 1750 chips by calling here outweighs the cost of 11K chips.... Well, I just don't see that gain being worth that risk. Strassa, I understand your craps shoot argument, but what of Sklansky's opportunity cost arguement? That is, by taking this deal and losing, we now have less chips when we find a much better situation later. I don't think tourney poker is about taking every slighly + gamble.

Consider this - Almost any time you find yourself in the CO, you odds of inducing a fold with an AI bet outweight the risk of being BOTH called AND beaten. But you wouldn't advocate doing that, would you? Use some patience. Better situations will come up.

CSC

That said, your arguements are causing me to think/re-evaluate, and for that I thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is well said. The value of gaining 1750 is far less than that of losing over 11K.

-Scott

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
How much of a factor is this weighing on the side of the call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the loss in FE outweighs the whatever benefit you gain from creating a fear of pushing at you since you will be considering jamming it more frequently than you will be sitting on the BB when your LP opponent is considering whether to attack you with a marginal hand, but I don't think either is that significant.

Later,
Che