Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question

[slickpoppa]

I agree that the answer to this question is call, although I do not think it is "not even close."

But really the point of this question was to see how people would go through the calculation. Calculating your probability of winning the seat if you call is pretty straightforward. By my estimate it is about 80%. However, deciding your probability of winning after folding is not so clear-cut. That probability is likely less than 80%, but I don't think by that much. At the absolute worst, the hero has a 66% shot of winning a seat if he folds (Think about it this way: if all three short stacks had the exact same number of chips, each one could not have more than a 33% chance of losing. But in this case the hero still has more chips than the short stack even if he folds). So I'm interested in what number people would put on the hero's chances of winnig if he folds. But no one has even attempted a calculation yet. Anyone willing to take a shot?

[Loci]

While theoretical play is informational, the theory of tournament poker is to win first place, not to take 187 as opposed to 188th. Call.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
While theoretical play is informational, the theory of tournament poker is to win first place, not to take 187 as opposed to 188th. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you even read my post? There is no difference between 1st and 8th place in this scenario

[Simplistic]

I call here, you're shortstacked enough that you gambool here. worst case scenario is he has Aces and nobody else calls, best case scenario, he has queens and someone else has queens too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[yecul]

If you fold you will no longer be next to last, UTG will now be shorter than you as you have 20k behind and he currently has that. Even with the blinds, shorty will still be short.

I would be tempted to call and end it right here, however, the "correct" answer is probably to fold.

Don't really like it and it makes me feel dirty. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DVC Calif]

[ QUOTE ]
While theoretical play is informational, the theory of tournament poker is to win first place, not to take 187 as opposed to 188th. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

However, if the tournament is a "satellite", where places 1 through 8 obstensibly all receive the same payout (seat into next tourney), then players must shift to a bubble-play strategy instead of the typical "I'm playing for First" mentality.

[Black Aces 518]

Loci-no.

In the example given, the tourney is OVER the next person who busts. Your only goal is to not be that person. 1st means nothing.

[Shorty35]

I think slickpoppa has the right analysis - and by "not that close" I meant that I believe that there is a significant (i.e. greater than 20%) increased likelihood of winning if you call versus winning if you fold. I agree that 80-85% is about right if you call. (This being the sum of the probability of winning the hand + the probability of cashing even if you lose the hand)

If you fold, you must cash 80% of the time or more for it to be the correct play. I also would like to see someone tackle the math, but I cant believe that the percentage is much higher than 65%.

[adanthar]

The percentage you win here calling KK isn't 80%; it's probably around 70-75% depending on the guy's range. However, you must still call this because your chances to fold in aren't *that* good, with three exceptions:

1)If the table is loose enough so that somebody will bust soon, guaranteed;
2)If you were actually to the big stack's right and he *was* folding every hand so you could steal from him at any point
3)If you had 30,000+

[sloth469]

[ QUOTE ]
... if you had JJ instead of KK does that change your answer at all?



[/ QUOTE ]

Ok now answer outloud.