Free Will Philosophy Problem

[PairTheBoard]

I assume I've been told about the alien. Suppose the alien can predict my behavior with 99.9% accuracy. If my Final Choice is both boxes the alien will have predicted That choice 99.9% of the time and my EV is $2000. If I my Final Choice is box #2 only, the alien will have predicted That choice 99.9% of the time and my EV is $999,000. Clearly I maximize my EV by taking Box 2 only - Final Decision.

However, we don't know that the alien can predict with 99.9% accuracy. All we know is he "can predict your actions as accurately as possible". Suppose his accuracy is only 50%, achieved by flipping a coin. Then choosing both boxes has EV $501,000 and choosing Box 2 has EV $500,000.

If the alien's accuracy is 50.05% either choice has EV $500,500. So if the alien can predict worth beans at all better than 50.05% accuracy you are better off choosing Box 2 only.

What's all the hubub about free will here? Sklanskytology solves it. Say, do you think this might be worth a Nobel Prize?

PairTheBoard

[Jazza]

i don't get it, why wouldn't you choose just box #2 ?

[edthayer]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't get it, why wouldn't you choose just box #2 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because there is essentially a free $1000 on the table. No matter what you think, or what you think the alien thinks, or what the alien thinks you think, nothing changes the fact that once you are given the opportunity to choose, the money with either be in Box 2, or it won't be.

Let's assume you chose only Box #2 and it turns out to contain the million. That means that the million was in the box the entire time. If you could go back in time, you could chose both boxes, and you'd have the million + 1000.

[Joe826]

You guys are missing the point. The reason a sophisticated alien is used in the example is just to assume that all information about your life has been accurately gathered and examined.

It's really a question of biological determinism. Do you think that your future choices are wholly determined by the totality of your past experience? If so, you're screwed because it's possible to accurately predict your future action so the alien will take the money out of box #2, so you might as well just take the 1k.

If you don't think we're biologically determined, then you might as well take box #2 since you believe the totality of your past experiences won't add up to any concrete answers as to which box you'll pick. Therefore, the alien has no way of knowing for sure whether or not you'll pick #2.

[PairTheBoard]

If you choose box 2 AND the alien is an accurate predictor - better than 50.05% - you will make more money on average than if you choose both boxes AND the alien is an accurate predictor of your choice.

You're assuming that the alien cannot accurately predict your choice.

PairTheBoard

[TStoneMBD]

how does this relate to free will/determinism?

hows this, i will simply take the million dollar box. a thousand dollars doesnt mean much to me. if the alien knows that i will simply take the million dollar box then i get the million dollars.

i guess what it boils down to is that if life revolves around free will, then it is correct to take both boxes because the alien can only guess what you will choose. however, if it boils down to determinism then its correct to take the million dollar box, because you will always get the million dollars every time you take this box, and you will never get the million dollars if you take both boxes.

i really dont understand the complexity of the problem. just take the million dollar box.

[jordanx]

Moreover, there is a reasonable chance the alien has some cheating mechanism that will skew the study results in his favor.

Like some smoke and mirrors job to hide the million if you pick both.

[Jazza]

[ QUOTE ]
Because there is essentially a free $1000 on the table. No matter what you think, or what you think the alien thinks, or what the alien thinks you think, nothing changes the fact that once you are given the opportunity to choose, the money with either be in Box 2, or it won't be.

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems to contradict the assumption the alien is always right

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Because there is essentially a free $1000 on the table. No matter what you think, or what you think the alien thinks, or what the alien thinks you think, nothing changes the fact that once you are given the opportunity to choose, the money with either be in Box 2, or it won't be.

[/ QUOTE ]

this seems to contradict the assumption the alien is always right

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem with this statement is that it sides with free will. if you sided with determinism then it means that picking the box with the million with it will give you the million more often than picking both boxes.

i argue that you should simply take the box of 1 million because we are too stupid to know if life is based on free will or determinism, so why risk it?

[Jazza]

i think i am starting to follow now

i argue that assuming the alien knows what we are going to do we don't have free will