Post flop profit maximization. (Flush draw comes through)

[twankerr]

It's always possible that leading this flop will cause some sort of isolation to be made, but you can't really just check-call this flop. Given the position of the PFR, a C/R is obviously going to isolate more often than simply leading. There needs to be two bets paid by the donks that are calling with 74o. The only person showing aggression so far is MP, so you have to assume it will continue in the hand. If it gets isolated before MP, then that is poker and you ran into a decent enough hand. However, there is no guarentee that given the laggish qualities of MP he wouldn't at least come along for two cold with junk like ace high.

[ QUOTE ]
Nah, turn is an obvious bet into that big of a field. I want callers there, let them pay to draw to a heart or something else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Afer thought, I find it hard to believe I even told you to C/R the turn.

[arkady]

It is probably closer than we think. Only need half of those guys to call. Just stoved it against a likely mixture of hands.

Hand 1: 31.5279 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { 9h8h }
Hand 2: 15.0169 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { JTs-J9s, T9s, KQo, JTo-J9o, T9o }
Hand 3: 07.0022 % [ 00.06 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 18.5439 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { AKs, AKo }
Hand 5: 27.9091 % [ 00.27 00.01 ] { KQs, QTs-Q6s, KQo, QTo-Q7o }

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I would definitely lead at the flop and call a raise

Why would you want MP to shut everyone out on your draw? Define a semibluff for me please, you are fogeting something. That flop texture begs a raise.

Bunk's line is perfect, river flawless.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[/ QUOTE ]


MP is shutting out one person. there are two people in between. I like that a lot better than checking and calling given that he has the gut shot too

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually MP was a real Lag, I figured he'd bet the river. If the CO bet, I'd have to just call and go for the overcalls.

[/ QUOTE ]


ok well that answers preflop and the river for me

[twankerr]

Also, I think the river looks great the more I look at it. UTG probably had very little, so facing him with two cold will not harm you. MP folding makes me giggle. The only person you wanted to get another bet out of was CO, which you did. kudo.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you looking at it as something versus check-raising. What is wrong with calling. You have 30% equity against a viable range of hands given the preflop action and you need callers and your line might shut them out. Who said c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]


he has a gut shot as well as the flush draw

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
he has a gut shot as well as the flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

His gutshot may be discounted a tad because someone with AK (and possibly K9) maybe in the hand, but yes you can increase your equity a tad.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
What guarantees do you have that they will even call Bunky's bet. Just because MP raised preflop does not mean he will be doing the isolating either. Someone right after Bunky can raise and get it HU. Awesome.

[/ QUOTE ]


the same thing could happen if you let the LAG bet the flop. CO could raise him. you miss out on a lot of value by checking

[arkady]

i am aware, it doesnt change things much. Maybe 2%.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
It is probably closer than we think. Only need half of those guys to call. Just stoved it against a likely mixture of hands.

Hand 1: 31.5279 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { 9h8h }
Hand 2: 15.0169 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { JTs-J9s, T9s, KQo, JTo-J9o, T9o }
Hand 3: 07.0022 % [ 00.06 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 18.5439 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { AKs, AKo }
Hand 5: 27.9091 % [ 00.27 00.01 ] { KQs, QTs-Q6s, KQo, QTo-Q7o }

[/ QUOTE ]



likely mixture of hands? one guy always has AK? you realize AK kills 3 of his outs, plsu kills his all of his outs 1 in 16, right? he might as well have 65s because you're ignoring the fact that he has a gut shot

that's also way too tight IMO. you're skewing it toward the board without any flop information. I don't put any weightinto this numbers