Just give Rich Harden the Cy Young right now.

[offTopic]

He's pitched well, but it's April 22. I wouldn't even give him the Curt Young.

[jason_t]

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Change your goddamn avatar Dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dead's is stupider.

[Jack of Arcades]

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baseball is a game with less variance than poker, if you can't catch up to a 94MPH heater then you will NEVER HIT, if you can't have command of 3 pitches you will NEVER BE ABLE TO PITCH

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This is true to a certain extent, but when we're talking about baseball, we're talking about a small subset of the top 1000 or so players where the differences in talent levels are much smaller than you and Ivey. Variance is a huge part of baseball, and sample size is a very important concept in analysing anyone's statistics.

[tdarko]

wow mariano is a closer, waaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy different. lets not get started with this crap, yes mariano is great the end.

plus i was using the "command of 3 pitches" in reference to your poker terminology thrown into a game that it doesn't apply. yes baseball has a lot of luck in it but sample size does not come into factor in a sport in which if you don't have the skill to execute given task then luck will then play no factor.

secondly mariano is a freak and one of maybe a couple pitchers ever to dominate with less than 3 pitches. when i say less than 3 pitches and "command" of 3 pitches i don't mean that you have to have 3 unbelievable pitches but that you have the ability to throw strikes in most counts at any time.

[Jack of Arcades]

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yes baseball has a lot of luck in it but sample size does not come into factor in a sport in which if you don't have the skill to execute given task then luck will then play no factor.

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But we are talking about the top 1000 players in baseball, sometimes we're only talking about the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Many times the difference in value will be nothing more than simple variance (Randy Johnson vs. Ben Sheets vs. Johan Santana last year, for example).

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
This is true to a certain extent, but when we're talking about baseball, we're talking about a small subset of the top 1000 or so players where the differences in talent levels are much smaller than you and Ivey. Variance is a huge part of baseball, and sample size is a very important concept in analysing anyone's statistics.




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this is 100% correct.

the way Dead was using sample size to small comparing baseball to poker is wrong though.

i am not saying poker doesn't have skill and baseball doesn't have luck b/c both do, i am simply saying that in the BIG LEAGUES if you have under a 1 ERA and we are at the end of the first month of the season then that is surpassed variance and said player is in the category as dominating. the variance will come into play in random games throughout the season so of course harden, clemens, and myers won't continue this pace but to not give credit is ignorant.

[tdarko]

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Is that why he's giving up nearly a hit/walk in every IP? Seriously, he's lucky

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lucky? maybe. i have seen a few of these games and he has made some big pitches when he needed to, this is a quality that makes him even more valuable. harden is a power pitcher (only MLB starter last year to AVG 95MPH with his fastball) so walks are going to especially with a young power pitcher and so are hits because he challenges hitters and doesn't pick at the plate, but it is also his incredible stuff that gets him out of jams.

he can't continue this but to call him lucky is questionable.

[ceyoung]

i thought a WHIP under 1 was considered solid?

[kyro]

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Nice sample size.

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While I agree with you, if these were Mussina's stats we'd have to listen to you crowing away about how dominant he was.

[tdarko]

i am talking about rich harden being lucky (variance). if you get big league hitters out time and time again and make big pitches then you are not lucky. big league hitters WILL make you pay when you miss.

i just get sick of people that don't have a clue trying to downplay people's accomplishments, i guess i am just not so much of a hater like others.

you have been dead on though jack.