Would you fold KK to reraise on Turn Straight draw board?

[Dave G.]

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Can somebody crunch the numbers and see how certain(in %) you have to be to fold here, do the math in the post if you would, I wanna learn. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Getting 20.5:1, Hero would need to be beaten here 95.3% of the time for this fold to be correct. I think that's fairly safe given the action and the board.

With 20.5:1 odds, the math works out like this:

1 / (20.5 + 1) = 0.047 (4.7%)

That's the percentage of the time hero has to be good here to call. So 1 - 0.047 = 0.953 (95.3%) is the percentage of the time that hero has to be beaten here to fold correctly.

[JC_Saves]

In case you did not read this thread in its entirety, I will just say, when you are playing .50/1.00 and have 4 people in a pot, and of those 4 people you have at least 2 fish, then I would say that there is a 75% chance that someone will bet this flop. That is who I was check raising.

NOT every raise is meant to protect a hand. What did I accomplish by my check raise? If succesful I will build a huge pot that I am heavily favored to win. If no one bets then when I bet out on the turn, especially if it is a low card, I will get them to come along a lot of times because they will think 1) that card helped me, or 2) I am making a play on the pot, and they will come along.

Sometimes it is better to pass up a small bet in favor of the higher turn bets after they have made a second best hand.

With KK on this flop there was no reason to be thinking about protecting my hand. If an Ace comes on the turn, then that is just the breaks.

I think your reasoning of not betting on the turn is flawed, because if I was last to act on a board like this I would bet out whether I had the straight or not just to see where I stood, and maybe win the pot there. By betting the turn, I will either win the pot right there, or someone will raise me and let me know that they have the str8t, or maybe they just call and then when I bet the river, and get reraised I then fold. I would have expended the same amount as I did in this hand.

I think that I should have folded the turn raise. Hence my reason for posting this hand. I think that is where my play was bad. I should have just folded and let it go. I called which was the bad play, because I was beaten, and there was no doubt in my mind.

So the pot size at that point or on the river did not matter, because I believed there was 100% chance of losing this hand so pot odds of 5% chance of winning making it profitable did not apply, because, again, if you are beat, you are beat.

[crownjules]

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With KK on this flop there was no reason to be thinking about protecting my hand. If an Ace comes on the turn, then that is just the breaks.

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So what you're saying is that a straight or flush draw isn't worth protecting against? I don't know about you but if I'm holding KK and see a very obvious draw board I'm going to do my best to protect my hand. You have more to worry about then the Ace falling, namely any 5, 6, 9, or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

You have a LOT you want to protect against.

[ErrantNight]

this flop is not terrible for you. and i pay off here as well.

[wyoak]

nevermind

[IPSC]

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I had KK the hand before this and won a little pot when no one improved to give me any action, couldn't pull off a CR on turn.


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** disclaimer: after almost 3,000 hands i am almost a break even player. very good possibility I'm a losing player though**

Why are you checking KK on the turn? Many passive players will call with anything on the turn to see if they improve by the river. Can't win a big pot unless you bet.

[bonaparte]

in the dark.....

I bet the flop and when somebody raises I plan to call down.

The turn totally botches everything. I check because there is too big a chance I am behind with 4 other players. MP1 waking up scares me and is probably a sure sign he has a 5. From here I don't know if I should call down or fold. You did the right thing on the river not betting.

[cmwck]

Well, first off, you weren't reraised on the turn, you were raised.

If you're planning on folding the turn, you should have checked/folded.

I don't like the flop checkraise. You really don't want to give a free card. THe rest of the hand looks good though,

[cmwck]

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I think this is a pretty easy turn fold. Calling the river would be burning a dollar bill.

-DeathDonkey

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You want to fold to a turn raise or fold the river?
Are you serious? I don't see how you can fold for one more bet in a 20BB pot.

[Schwartzy61]

Flop: How does the check raise protect your hand when everyone has already called the first bet? You have to bet and hope either UTG or UTG+1 raises to protect your hand.

Turn: I think betting is the right play here, just as betting out was more correct on the flop, and how you get your raise from slightly later position, I say you either Fold or 3-bet it and hope to make it heads up. It will protect your out to the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and if you are only up against two pair you still have some other outs to the best hand and could be up against another overpair?

River: I think check/call is fine here. The action on the turn could really have spelled out your doom.