Big Draw On Turn, Party NL 1k

[Jason Strasser]

Am I the only crazy one here who might ponder a fold if my opponent is good? If this opponent will pay my draw off, then I'd call and push the river if I hit. But if he is reasonable he probably will not call if I hit a straight or a flush...

You can't afford to draw here if you aren't going to get paid off on the river. If you had something like a flush draw with a double gutter or something more hidden than your hand--then go for it.

[Yeti]

Yeah for me its a clear fold/allin, completely dependent on your read of your opponents betting patterns and stuff.

Personally, I'd probably fold.

Calling is pretty bad imo.

[gomberg]

Why does the opponent have to pay you off if you hit? You're getting immediate pot odds unless your opponent has Axh, which probably wouldn't bet the turn like this.

This is at least a clear call in my mind - am I missing something?

I'd have no problem missing and folding to a river bet. I'd also have no problem hitting and not getting any more moeny.

[elindauer]

I think you have a fair amount of folding equity here. An overcard that makes a straight possible just hit, that's a nasty scare card. When you are called, you have a ton of outs. Move in.

Good luck.
Eric

[mgsimpleton]

definitely push. you have huge amounts of folding equity - even a supertight player might lay down a set, fearing the T9 which just got there.

and as for the "no hands are calling that you beat" advice... i see that way too often on these boards. it is a bluff, people. it's a semibluff with likely 15 outs, of course, but a bluff nonetheless. we do not want calls. that being said, most hands will lay down at this point.

AhKh, AhTh are obviously hands that will not lay down, but KQ, QJ, AQ, and KT are all hands that will. a set might even consider. push!

[Jason Strasser]

Well I did the math kinda intuitively but I suppose you are right if in fact you do have immediate pot odds. Hrm.

[Matt Flynn]

If he's a calling station you would call and then push in if you hit. If he's tight but not very aggressive (hence he probably has a commitment hand) you would fold. Problem is a wide swath of opponents fall near the breakeven point. If opponent did not fit into the call category, I would often just fold unless I am working rush equity or aggression equity.

Matt

P.S. Try stating your assumptions about your outs then working through it. What percentage of the time does he need to fold for the push to be profitable? I'll post the math later.

[Matt Flynn]

If you assume you have 13.1 average outs (poosibly a little high), you win 30% of the time you are called.

Folding costs you zero.

Going all in costs $841. If he folds you win $525. If he calls then 30% of the time you win $1141 and 70% you lose $845. Let x=coefficient of folding. (1-x)=coefficient of calling.

You win 525x + (1-x)[0.3*1141 - 0.7*841]
= 525x + (1-x)[342-589]
= 525x + (1-x)[-246]
= 525x - 246 + 246x
= 771x - 246

You break even when x = 246/771 = 32%.

Assume 12 outs and it's 300/825 = 36%.

Assume 14 outs and it's 210/735 = 29%.

Be good if someone checked my addition.

Matt

[Richie Rich]

Matt-

No disrespect, but mathematical thinking/analyzation does not seem to be well-respected in this forum.

Regards,
RR

[Wayfare]

[ QUOTE ]
Matt-

No disrespect, but mathematical thinking/analyzation does not seem to be well-respected in this forum.

Regards,
RR

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean your mathematical thinking/analyzation doesn't seem to be well respected.

And it's analysis buddy.

Analysis.