When is 25s profitable?

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi elindauer:

I don't like this call. Part of the reason for this is that if you flop a draw and continue, it is very unlikely that you can win if you make a pair. So you're putting in extra money preflop with limited opportunites to win.

Best wishes,
Mason

[shmahappens]

You apparently don't get much beer if that's how you spend your beer funds. Are you implying that you should attempt to steal with 25s against 4 players and a pf raiser? As the sb and bb along with all the ep limpers are very unlikely to call two more cold, so you're not making the pot huge with a crazed threebet. Were you being sarcastic?

[shmahappens]

However Elindaur was saying that the odds of flopping the twopr, oesd, 4-flush are 5:1 against getting 8:1, so pf would work even without getting the extra outs of missing a draw, and having a single pair be good enough (as i doubt that could ever happen), as on the flop you're defenitley getting odds for any of the above draws, right? The pot's already offering you 1:16 for a call on the flop, needing around 1:6 for the flush (assuming no higher flush) and maybe 1:7 assuming an A or two is gone if the flop comes x34 to get the OESD. For one bet a gut-shot/ running flush and pair type combo is also callable, so shouldn't that improve my odds?
Although yes at the time I didn't calculate all this, my gamble got the better of me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] But in retrospect for the above-mentioned reasons it doesn't seem too bad?

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I started this link, but Havana that is just terrible. I'm calling with 6 people (3 in for two bets) with the expectation that 2 more will come. You're raising after 3 limpers? That isn't even close to an example when this hand should be profitable, that is just tossing chips out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I have more opportunity for a free card than you, and whos fishy image do you think will linger the longest, yours or mine?
What hand will they put me on next time I raise?

I know many people who 'know' poker will knock it, but thats because they never tried it.

Perfect Poker is imperfect.

ToT (TuristOnTilt)

[pokerjo22]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I have more opportunity for a free card than you, and whos fishy image do you think will linger the longest, yours or mine?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's right - the easiest way to get a 'fishy image' is to be a fish.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
You apparently don't get much beer if that's how you spend your beer funds. Are you implying that you should attempt to steal with 25s against 4 players and a pf raiser? As the sb and bb along with all the ep limpers are very unlikely to call two more cold, so you're not making the pot huge with a crazed threebet. Were you being sarcastic?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're forgetting that he's on the button here.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
However Elindaur was saying that the odds of flopping the twopr, oesd, 4-flush are 5:1

[/ QUOTE ]

It's nice that he said that, and I hope that he brought enough of whatever drugs he's taking to share with the rest of us.

[Turning Stone Pro]

Now THAT is a good response.

[shmahappens]

I'm not very good with statistics about that, so I just assumed he was in the ballpark. Thanks for posting how he was wrong, and correcting him instead of just mocking him needlessly.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very good with statistics about that, so I just assumed he was in the ballpark.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then that's something you need to work on. Common sense, here, please -- a 1-in-6 chance of hitting two pair, two of his suit, or precisely a 3 and a 4 on the flop should raise the flag on just about anybody bullshitometer. You've only got a 1-in-3 chance of hitting a pair with any two cards on the flop, can you see any way that one can have a 1-in-6 chance of hitting two pair or a draw?

If you really did have that kind of chance, them there poker books would be telling you to play 54o or Q2s after limpers from almost any position.