Huge draw. Huge hand. Check it?

[elindauer]

I'm glad to see that someone ran these numbers. I did virtually these exact simulations immediately after I played the hand. I think these numbers, combined with some though about the questions Alex asked in his post, will give you the best answer to "Part Two", to 3-bet or not.

Good luck.
Eric

[AviD]

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Interesting, that is why I would have checked the turn (check hands with outs, bet hands with no outs),

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What about betting when you have the best hand? If you stick to the "strategy" you explain above, you will be leaving alot of money on the table and giving alot of pots away...ALOT.

[elindauer]

I think the posts from the alex and Lawrence Ng sum up my thoughts on this.

First, Lawrence shows that AA is likely to have a pot equity edge in a 3 way pot, so that I should be looking to ram and jam on the turn, even if I know I'm behind. I don't know whether or not UTG will call 2 cold on the turn, but it'll be very profitable for me if he does (any king, any set, maybe even a two pair, a very bad player maybe even something worse).

If UTG does not call, I'm still in good shape though. This is where alex's questions come in. I am planning to call a river bet in this huge pot in case I just got check-raised by a set of queens. I've already committed three big bets to this hand mentally, and by putting the 3rd bet in on the turn, it's very likely that even a king is going to slow down, fearing that I have a flush. Remember that I hold a key blocking card, the ace of hearts, so nobody can cap with any confidence.

If a king calls the 3-bet and checks the river, I only bet if I improve. Now I lose 3 when I miss, but make 4 when I catch. There's something else with even more value though, and this gets at Alex's other question.

What line gets me the most money on the river when I catch? Well, if UTG calls with a lower set, a very plausible holding given the action preflop and the board, what will he put me on? He'll surely think that I have either a straight or a flush. He'll never put me on a set after my turn 3-bet. Should he fill up to a lower fullhouse, I might take everybody for the maximum on the river. If I play the turn slower, UTG, if he's a good hand reader, will have to fear that I have a set myself after betting the turn and then just calling the raise.

So, 3-betting wins more against a straight. I have an equity edge that justifies it. And it adds deception which can turn the river into a bet explosion should I fill.


Results: I 3-bet. UTG folds. MP3 calls. The river is an offsuit king. Check check.

MP3 shows Ad Kd and we chop. At least it was two ways instead of three!