Thoughts on statistics

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have PokerStove handy, but it's much better than 45% or 41%

[/ QUOTE ]

I did use pokerstove:

45% is AKs against 22+
41% is AKs against 99+ (actually 41.7%).

I don't think he'd push with pairs lower than 7 for sure. 77 and 88 is the gray area. And, as you're assuming, AA/KK would/might only be mini-raised. If we assume AKs against 99-QQ, then we're still a dog. If you add AQ+, and KQs, then it's a 56% favorite. But I think it's a serious mistake not to include AA and KK in the calculation. Bringing those two hands back in make it a 52% favorite.

So EV fold = 32.2%
EV call = 30.7%

Change HR to include AJ
EV call = 31.7%

So you're right. Thanks for proving your point. I see that ICM does incorporate "survival equity."

[The Yugoslavian]

Just wait until you run into the other side of variance...

Yugoslav

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I did use pokerstove:

45% is AKs against 22+
41% is AKs against 99+ (actually 41.7%).

[/ QUOTE ]


Duh. I filtered out AA/KK. Pretty stupid after you told me he had KK.

I'd expect him to min-raise, 3xBB raise, or limp with AA/KK before pushing. Clearly something I have to think about. I still don't think he'd do this with AA.

So your ICM numbers are for 99+, AQ+, KQs? Very interesting.

[viennagreen]

Eight tabling... finish stats (with a little rounding off)--
1-3 38%
1-4 51%
1-5 63%
1-6 76%
7 9.6%
8 7.5%
9 3.5%
10 3.4%

[viennagreen]

discounting the possibility of AA/KK pushing is definitely a mistake.

i will push with AA/KK in his spot under a couple of circumstances, which occur quite frequently--

1) if i've been pushing a lot, bullying the table
2) if i recently (last 5-10 hands) was caught stealing and doubled up with a poor hand

in either of these situations, i frequently get paid off with my premium hands--- and when i do, it has the benefit of lending my future pushes more respect.

[halis123456789]

you'd be surprised how effective playing AA KK like that can be (depending on your table image)

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're right. Thanks for proving your point. I see that ICM does incorporate "survival equity."

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you are trying to translate the ICM into english, I think "survival equity" is the wrong term for this case.

You aren't going to be eliminated here so "survival" doesn't explain why this +EV play is -$EV according to your hand range.

I think a better explanation is: "not all chips are worth the same". The difference between having a 300 chip stack and an 800 chip stack is huge. The difference between 5100 chips and 5600 chips is not huge. In both cases, we are talking about 500 chips. In a side game, there would be no difference.

The ICM is telling us that turning a big stack into a monster stack doesn't buy you that much. Each chip over 4000 is worth less than each chip below 4000.

In this AK example, you are bumping into the ICM ceiling. Due to the prize structure, the ICM will never be greater than 0.50. As you get over 0.40, each additional chip isn't worth much. It's not really a matter of surviving or not surviving.

If you changed the payouts from 50/30/20 to 70/20/10, this would be a call, I think.

[halis123456789]

ScubaChuck, I am viewed as weak tight for a good portion of my tournament life as well. And yes it is a horrible play to call with the AKo here.

He doesn't have anything but Ace high, if the other guy is decent he very well might have AA KK in this spot, even if he has QQ why coin flip (with QQ having the edge) for over 62% of your chips?

Talk math all you want, that's just stupid tournament poker.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
discounting the possibility of AA/KK pushing is definitely a mistake.

i will push with AA/KK in his spot under a couple of circumstances, which occur quite frequently--

1) if i've been pushing a lot, bullying the table
2) if i recently (last 5-10 hands) was caught stealing and doubled up with a poor hand

in either of these situations, i frequently get paid off with my premium hands--- and when i do, it has the benefit of lending my future pushes more respect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I was thinking (or overthinking) of an opponent with no read.

If the villian were pushing a lot or pushing with weak hands, you should definately include AA/KK, but you should also include a lot of other hands too (Ax?, any pair?).

Therefore, it's still really close for a call. Either you eliminate these hands or you include a bunch of other hands too. Either way, a call may be correct. It's close in my mind.

[halis123456789]

this guy went flat out all in 2500 with 100/200 blinds, he has more than enough chips to last a long long time, he goes all in and you put AQ in the range of hands? in my mind, that's the ONLY hand you can beat here. even 22 has you covered, so why gamble? just pretend you never saw the AK and wait for a better opportunity.