MLB 4/10

[mrbaseball]

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Minny should win 55 -60 percent of the time

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Can you back that up with Santanas past vs WS, Buehrles past vs MIN, Batter vs pitcher stats of either matchup?

I didn't think so [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] All you have is Santana is good and Minny is home. If nothing else counts why do we even bother looking?

[Tboner7]

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Well, Beckett had a very strong opening day and they are at home.

Carpenter also had very strong opening day and St Louis has strong offense and they are at home.

The Angels game, I'm not really really confident in, but I just think Colon can shut down the Royals and the Angels will have enough to score against Anderson. This game could be the one to undo the parlay, but I'm taking the chance.

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I really think you are just gambling here. You cite reasons like "St. Louis has a strong offense." Of course they do, that is why they are always huge favorites.

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And it is also why they will win many games this year.
How about this:
The Nats hitters have a .213 average against Beckett and the Marlins have a .296 average against Patterson

Leiber struggled in his season debut and St Louis hitters are hitting .333 off of him. Carpenter hasn't done much better against Philly hitters in his career, but his debut was much stronger.

Royals are hitting .245 against Colon. Angels are just .255 off Anderson in career although Vlad is .360 with 4 homeruns. This one was a tough one, I am kinda gambling on this, but I just figure Angels are better and will win.

Is that at least a little better?

[Trefo]

I only making my point on your phrase small sample size....
You made my point for me.

[DougOzzzz]

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Santana's year last year was far from a fluke

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No it wasn't he is a very top end guy. So is Beuhrle. Look at the facts. Last season Santana 2-2 vs WS (1-2 In Minnesota) and Buehrle 2-3 vs MIN (2-1 in MIN). On that small sample Buehrle looks to be the favorite? This year Buehrle 8 innings 2 hits no runs. Santana 5 innings 5 hits 4 runs.

If you wanna say Santana is better and bet him go ahead. But look at the numbers, look at the past, and ask the question "how often does it happen?" Sorry but so far Minny don't win 60% or even 50%.

Give me a better argument than "Santana is better" and I'd like to listen.

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Hey man... you obviously have a great source for all these statistics, and I'd be interested in hearing about it.

However, you REALLY need to consider just how important this information is. Do you really think that a tiny sample of starts takes on greater precedence than the fact that Santana had a full season of dominance, prefaced by 2 years in which he was well on the path to stardom?

Statistics like these probably have some small amount of value when betting. But there's probably very little correlation between a pitchers record vs. 1 team the past season and his future record against the same team. At least, a much, much, smaller correlation than analyzing the actual rate statistics that count for a pitcher (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and to a small extent to those who are not true DIPS believers, H/9), the offenses of both his team and the opposing team, and the rate stats of the opposing pitcher.

In all 4 cases, the Twins have the advantage. And in the case of Santana vs. Buehrle, it's quite large.

[mrbaseball]

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Santana had a full season of dominance

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Not against Chicago?

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In all 4 cases, the Twins have the advantage. And in the case of Santana vs. Buehrle, it's quite large


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Not if you look at actual results. And where do you get this stuff? Chicago scored 85 more runs than MIN last season. Anyway it's obvious you are into the BP type big projection type stuff. Which is good for understanding what will happen during a season but it doesn't tell you squat about what's gonna happen today. The talent gap here is miniscule for both teams and starters.

I'm more a current form kinda guy who concentrates on specific matchups. It has served me extremely well in the past. I get most of my information from USAtoday.com, SI.com, and ESPN.com

Based on what happened before and what happened last week I can't see MIN a significant favorite here at all.

[mrbaseball]

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You made my point for me

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What is your point? Have you looked at the game past the names of the starters? Why should MIN win 60% of the time? I've said why they shouldn't.

[DougOzzzz]

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Santana had a full season of dominance

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Not against Chicago?

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In all 4 cases, the Twins have the advantage. And in the case of Santana vs. Buehrle, it's quite large


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Not if you look at actual results. And where do you get this stuff? Chicago scored 85 more runs than MIN last season. Anyway it's obvious you are into the BP type big projection type stuff. Which is good for understanding what will happen during a season but it doesn't tell you squat about what's gonna happen today. The talent gap here is miniscule for both teams and starters.

I'm more a current form kinda guy who concentrates on specific matchups. It has served me extremely well in the past. I get most of my information from USAtoday.com, SI.com, and ESPN.com

Based on what happened before and what happened last week I can't see MIN a significant favorite here at all.

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I'm going by BP PECOTA forecasts which project Minn to score 8 more runs than Chicago this year, despite playing at a less hitter-friendly park. You could argue that maybe the White Sox have a slightly better offense though.

Once again though, you bring up the fact that Santana didn't dominate Chicago in his whopping 4 decisions last year. Once again, I say, that is a very small consideration. Obviously we disagree. If Santana started 20 games against the White Sox last year, I would be inclined to use those stats instead of his entire season stats. But 4 or 5 vs. 30+? I'll go with the season stats then. I just think that other than the basic lefty-righty etc. pitcher/hitter matchup there's not a whole lot of evidence that "matchups" mean much in baseball.

And while BP's statistics/projections tend to look at what happens over the course of a season, I think they can be adjusted to determine what's likely to happen in each game.

[mrbaseball]

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his whopping 4 decisions last year

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Admittedly a small smaple but it's all we have. He had 34 starts. 4 is about 12% of them. Sorta significant I'd say. And can we just ignore the gem Buehrle pitched on Monday and the fact Santana got roughed up?

The more sample the better but with what we have I'd say we are looking at a big name hype line and those in my experience are the best kind to take the other side of.

[DougOzzzz]

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his whopping 4 decisions last year

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Admittedly a small smaple but it's all we have. He had 34 starts. 4 is about 12% of them. Sorta significant I'd say. And can we just ignore the gem Buehrle pitched on Monday and the fact Santana got roughed up?

The more sample the better but with what we have I'd say we are looking at a big name hype line and those in my experience are the best kind to take the other side of.

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Well, I agree that the big name hype line is usually good to take the other side. But that doesn't mean that you can't be objective about each individual case.

Bottom line, I think Santana is significantly better than Buehrle. Buehrle has done good things despite unimpressive rate stats, yet even his traditional stats of the past 3 years don't compare to Santana's. I think calling him top tier is giving him too much credit. Top tier should be limited to the top 10 or so pitchers in the game - Santana is safely in, Buehrle is not.

The last game pitched by both these guys is a small factor of course, and Buehrle has the edge there. But it's a very small factor compared to the others. I disagree with 4 starts being even "sorta significant" - you probably need at least 8 starts to even reach that territory. Even a full year's worth of stats can be greatly influenced by luck, so in 4 games there is a tremendous amount of sample noise.

[lastsamurai]

I took dodgers today Under 9 1/2