KINGS FROM HELL

[Dave G.]

It's difficult to narrow COs holdings down here because he originally only limped. Important distinction, it was raised behind him. At no point did he cold call.

That could mean any number of things. It came back to him 3-bet which he is more likely to call having put money in already, but it doesn't necessarily mean cards 10 or higher.

If he's a bad player it could be as bad as ace-rag. It might be a suited connector, a pocket pair, or even just suited cards. Conversly, if he's a good player, almost any hand with a Q in it that he is thinking of playing from the CO should be raised, not limped.

I could understand your logic if we were talking about an Ace here but there's just no way to narrow his holding down to any meaningful result, even if we knew a little bit about him (we don't know anything here).

The only meaningful result we can get is the probability that he was dealt a queen to begin with. After that, it comes down to the guessing game (reads). This is calculated with the usual probability calculation taking into account the number of unseen cards and the number of queens remaining.

[Malachii]

You're right. I misread the preflop line. And I can't really argue with your conclusion given that he did initially limp.

<-- Feels stupid right now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[FreakDaddy]

Reads on both these hands would be helpful.
Hand 1 - That's a tough laydown, but I think I do the same here. I'm assuming you're against a thinking opponent. With a UTG call and an MP raise, I'm placing button on some kind of AQs, maybe even AJs,AQo or KQs which would be a stretch considering your cards. Considering how it was played I'm leaning towards the improbable KQs as button hits his flush draw. I have hard time believing he's calling all this way with a gutshot, but you've offered no reads here. Either way, I think it's more than 90% of the time you're behind against a thinking player here.

Hand 2 - With no reads this is another tough hand. It's quite believable though that CO called with some kind of high broadway or made his trips. If he did, he badly misplayed the hand. He probably would have raised with high pairs pre-flop so we can scratch that and he would have raised with high suited cards, so most likely he was holding QJs, KQo, or medium pocket pair, in this case 77 (probable against early limpers before him). Considering all this, if he wasn't a good player I'd fold here. If he was a good player I'd call down. Counter-intuitive? I hope not.