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#21
04-05-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
Per MarkL444's request I'll post my picks in the dirst day's thread I see. If anybody objects because it makers it too hard to follow someone sound off.
From other tread: Bos/NYY Ov 9' Adding: Parlay: SFG -158 & Minn -154; 1 unit to win 1.693 at Pinnacle. Two pitchers (Schmidt & Santana) that may be unhittable today. Separately, too much chalk, but when parlayed the payoff is reasonable and I think I have more than a 55% chance of collecting. Also playing LA/SF under 7' +102 at Pinnacle. Looking at a couple more for tonight. 
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#22
04-05-2005, 05:39 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
Per MarkL444's request I'll post my picks in the dirst day's thread I see. If anybody objects because it makers it too hard to follow someone sound off. From other tread: Bos/NYY Ov 9' Adding: Parlay: SFG -158 & Minn -154; 1 unit to win 1.693 at Pinnacle. Two pitchers (Schmidt & Santana) that may be unhittable today. Separately, too much chalk, but when parlayed the payoff is reasonable and I think I have more than a 55% chance of collecting. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand this. You're saying that each bet individually is -EV. Yet, combined, they are somehow +EV, even though you are paying even more juice on this bet. How is it that you've discovered the way to add negative numbers and turn them into positive?
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#23
04-05-2005, 05:42 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to pull the trigger on ATL too but I just can't until I see Smoltz pitch once or twice. He hasn't started in quite a while. But with Mazzone and company and his natural talent and determination he will probably make the transition back to starting just fine. I'm just not betting on it yet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Good play. Go Cubbies!
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#24
04-05-2005, 05:54 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
gotta love 1st inning grand slams...7-0 marlins, ugh
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#25
04-05-2005, 06:49 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
No, I don't think each bet is -EV, I do this to lessen my exposure. I always bet these parlays with games that happen in series...never on games that run concurrently. So I wager half as much and win more, and if the first game fails I can bet the other separately if I choose.
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#26
04-05-2005, 06:57 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
[ QUOTE ]
No, I don't think each bet is -EV, I do this to lessen my exposure. I always bet these parlays with games that happen in series...never on games that run concurrently. So I wager half as much and win more, and if the first game fails I can bet the other separately if I choose. [/ QUOTE ] Well, that's fine then... from your post it made it seem like you thought the original lines weren't worth it. Nevertheless, the better play in terms of EV is to make each bet separately. If you prefer risking less to win more though, go ahead with the parlay...
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#28
04-05-2005, 07:01 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
i initially liked this line when i saw it at +140...now that you said something, i may jump on it. Looks good
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#30
04-05-2005, 08:23 PM
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Re: MLB 4/5
Braves go down big
YTD 3-2
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Linear Mode
