Simple preflop question - Page 3

davelin · #21 04-01-2005, 11:37 AM

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
6 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, CO folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB folds.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

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Standard against all but the tighter or weaker PF raisers who aren't likely to steal from the CO.

At least, I hope its standard b/c I do this all the time.

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Cool. Are your blind-stealing-stealing standards the same as your blind-stealing standards in this position?

MrWookie47 · #22 04-01-2005, 11:45 AM

I'm not suggesting that I think he's actually packing AA. I'm saying that with loose raising standards, he might have anything from A2o or worse all the way up to AA. At 20% PFR, that's twice as many hands as the average 2+2er. Against half of those, we're a pretty big dog, while against the other half or so, it's a more fair fight. I think we're OK to call, but I don't think we're ahead enough to 3-bet here. Given a higher stil PFR%, then 3-betting is more profitable.

einbert · #23 04-01-2005, 11:47 AM

I might even three-bet.

I think folding would be quite bad.

davelin · #24 04-01-2005, 11:56 AM

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I'm not suggesting that I think he's actually packing AA. I'm saying that with loose raising standards, he might have anything from A2o or worse all the way up to AA. At 20% PFR, that's twice as many hands as the average 2+2er. Against half of those, we're a pretty big dog, while against the other half or so, it's a more fair fight. I think we're OK to call, but I don't think we're ahead enough to 3-bet here. Given a higher stil PFR%, then 3-betting is more profitable.

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Right now we're looking to spend 2 SBs to win 4.5 (5.5 assuming Villain will most likely call). We don't have to be the overwhelming favorite to win this hand, the read of the opponent post-flop makes this 3-bet much easier to execute IMO.

MrWookie47 · #25 04-01-2005, 12:33 PM

OK, against the weak opponent, I see your point. Three-betting makes him one SB's worth more likely to fold.

jojobinks · #26 04-01-2005, 12:45 PM

overzealous, yes. haven't read the thread, though.

tiltaholic · #27 04-01-2005, 12:56 PM

So. To recap.

I have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the CO after I post.
A slightly loose, very aggressive preflop villian who is somewhat aggressive but very weak postflop openraises in MP2, MP3 folds, I call. all fold.

2 players to the flop for 5.5 small bets.

FLOP 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian bets. I RAISE. Villian calls.

(4BB) TURN J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian checks. I bet.

thoughts? routine "continuation bet"?

my reads. he's aggressive enough that he 3-bets a mid pocket overpair on the flop. i think. so he must have unpaired high cards. so, on the turn, does he have a jack?
will he check raise if he does? i say it is unlikely.
will he check call if he has a jack? i say it is highly likely.
will he fold 2 unpaired non-jacks? i say extremely likely.

therefore, i bet and plan to fold to a raise or check through on the river UI. goot?

GrunchCan · #28 04-01-2005, 01:10 PM

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Are your blind-stealing-stealing standards the same as your blind-stealing standards in this position?

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Still forumating my plan on this.