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#21
03-22-2005, 11:22 PM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
I don't wait till the turn to raise here because of the flush draw.
Meh this is such a silly notion. The odds against a flush draw out there are almost 6:1. This is a wasted worry. Brad 
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#22
03-22-2005, 11:27 PM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't wait till the turn to raise here because of the flush draw. Meh this is such a silly notion. The odds against a flush draw out there are almost 6:1. This is a wasted worry. Brad [/ QUOTE ] Brad, what do you think of the river call?
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#23
03-22-2005, 11:36 PM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't wait till the turn to raise here because of the flush draw. Meh this is such a silly notion. The odds against a flush draw out there are almost 6:1. This is a wasted worry. Brad [/ QUOTE ] Brad, what do you think of the river call? [/ QUOTE ] I dunno really. SB's flop cap and turn check/call means that he has a draw. The problem is that he might just have QJ for a straight draw. There are 15 combos of that hand (not counting QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). There are 55 ways that he could have flopped a flush draw in this hand, so you should you are getting a pretty nice overlay if he will fire off a bluff with QJ when the flush draw comes in. The problem is that he will probably give up with a busted straight draw on the river and check/fold most of the time. So I think it is close here, and that it really depends more on a read then anything else. I don't think that anyone can blame you for calling because a) it is so hard to lay it down in a huge pot and b) it would be correct to call here against certain opponents. Brad
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#24
03-23-2005, 01:01 AM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
Another reason to wait until the turn is that there aren't any players behind him left to act. In the posted hand he had the oppurtunity to call 2 cold on the flop and then raise a bettor on his right for a double bet. This is fine.
In reality it appears that the SB would have 3-bet it, and at that point when it comes back to me I would 4-bet it. If, however SB does not reraise then I would raise a non diamond, non king turn.
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#25
03-23-2005, 01:05 AM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
Where does this 6:1 come from? Random hands for opponents? When the action goes bet, call, raise, into a preflop raiser on a two flush board I imagine bayes theorem comes into play and the probabilities of flush draws being out increases. The fact that the player suspects a flush draw is important to the play of the hand.
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#27
03-23-2005, 01:55 AM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
[ QUOTE ]
nice hand. you aint folding that river for 21-1. 4-1, sure. 21-1, no [/ QUOTE ] ok, good. are you sure I didn't overplay the flop?
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#28
03-23-2005, 02:01 AM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] nice hand. you aint folding that river for 21-1. 4-1, sure. 21-1, no [/ QUOTE ] ok, good. are you sure I didn't overplay the flop? [/ QUOTE ] I dont think you did. bet + raise could be a lot of things on this board, even considering that they're doing it with the PFR still to act.
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#29
03-23-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: AA --Too Aggressive?
if you knew for a fact that he was on a flush draw this would still be the correct way to play it.
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