Anyone else hesitant with 33 in MP? - Page 3

davelin · #21 03-02-2005, 06:55 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 23.50 BB

Results in white below: 
MP1 has Ks 9d (straight, ten high).
Hero has 6c 6h (full house, sixes full of tens).
Button has Jh 9c (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 23.50 BB.

GrunchCan · #22 03-02-2005, 06:56 PM

If an occasional pot is raised PF when you have a low PP, it doesn't affect the EV of your play much. In effect, you have simply paid 8 SBs to see 7 flops. WHen all is said and done, the 1 extra SB you paid over the whole sequnce of flops isn't going to have much impact.

When the PFR does have an impact is when pots are PFRed frequently. If for instance every pot if PFRed, then that doubles the ammount of money you need to make with your sets in order to break even.

But why are we sitting at a table where every pot is PFRed? When I sit at a table, I want to be the aggressive one. I want my opponents to be as passive as possible. Granted, some pots are going to be PFRed at every table, but if you excercise good table selection, you can sit down where it won't have a big impact on the EV of playing low PPs.

So we come back to the same old mantra: If you can't limp in with a low PP in EP, your'e sitting at the wrong table.

waynethetrain · #23 03-02-2005, 07:05 PM

>So we come back to the same old mantra: If you can't limp in with a low PP in EP, your'e sitting at the wrong table.<

I agree. I just find that table textures change rapidly with all the people that come and go so quickly at PP. In fact, I think it's typical to sit down at a table that looks loose and passive and see it change rapidly as every TA player in the world gets on the waiting list. It's hard to notice the change until after at least an orbit or two.

So I still think that if you are playing those small PPs early you better be pretty sure about the texture.

GrunchCan · #24 03-02-2005, 07:07 PM

Your'e right about that, and I think its amplified when the bonuses are running. 2/4 has been much tougher than usual last week.

chris_a · #25 03-02-2005, 07:09 PM

I'm not asking you to say that it's clear, I'm asking: Why?

For instance, limping when the players are 90% vpips with very low preflop raises you're very likely to get no raise and enough players to give you odds (well more than 5 to 1). That's a reason.

With every player being 15% vpip and 8% PFR it's very clear that you shouldn't play it. It's very likely to get raised in which case it will likely be 2 or 3 way in which case 22 is most certainly not profitable out of position. That's a reason.

Where is the line for clear and not clear?
Still half fish and half $$bags is clear?

My opinion is that nobody knows the answer to this, because nobody has enough stats on 22 UTG with tables like where people play about as well as avg. Party 0.5/1.0. Unless you do, and I'll eat my words,which I'd be happy to do if I get a well-thought out response to this.

In the meantime I'll make a poll.

davelin · #26 03-02-2005, 07:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not asking you to say that it's clear, I'm asking: Why?

For instance, limping when the players are 90% vpips with very low preflop raises you're very likely to get no raise and enough players to give you odds (well more than 5 to 1). That's a reason.

With every player being 15% vpip and 8% PFR it's very clear that you shouldn't play it. It's very likely to get raised in which case it will likely be 2 or 3 way in which case 22 is most certainly not profitable out of position. That's a reason.

Where is the line for clear and not clear?
Still half fish and half $$bags is clear?

My opinion is that nobody knows the answer to this, because nobody has enough stats on 22 UTG with tables like where people play about as well as avg. Party 0.5/1.0. Unless you do, and I'll eat my words,which I'd be happy to do if I get a well-thought out response to this.

In the meantime I'll make a poll.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what constitutes proving a "clear" call or not. But let's say you always limp UTG with 22. Let's say that there's a raise behind you 5% of the time so you usually spend 1.05SB per every time you're dealt 22. You flop the set about 1:8 times but you don't always win when you flop the set so let's say you need 1:10 in return. So you need to make on average >10.5SB each time you hit the set. Let's say on average 2.5 others limp plus the blinds so 4SB goes to the pot. I just don't see it hard to believe that you can find another 6.5SB's when you hit the set given it's such a hidden hand.

waynethetrain · #27 03-02-2005, 07:26 PM

I have a little trick for finding great tables, but I am reluctant to share yet it even though it's working very well so far. When I have a little more experience with it and I'm more confident I'm giving good advice, I'll post it.

GrunchCan · #28 03-02-2005, 07:37 PM

Please do. I'd really appreciate it.

Shillx · #29 03-02-2005, 07:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Please do. I'd really appreciate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

VBM · #30 03-02-2005, 08:02 PM

the tiniest of quibbles but i had this very same question and as i'm nearly math-retarded, some better minds than mine helped me with the specifics of flopping a set