one annoying sit and go situation

[Voltron87]

At the higher buy ins (I've played about 2-3 215s in my life, bear in mind, mostly step 5s) I go for a CR here, the same way I play an overpair.

[TheAmp]

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You can't outplay people so much that you have to decline a possible coin flip for 500 of your chips when there is 750-800 already in the pot.

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Don't make a big deal out of it. you are giving away 120 chips to avoid a coinflip (at best) for half your stack.


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This is a $215 sit and go, where the players don't play like giant idiots all of the time, you generally need to take a situation that is this clearly +EV.

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If you play 200$ SnG's with 15$ fee, I believe you expect to outplay your oponnents. This is a good place to start.

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btw in my opinion there is extremely little chance he has a set. People simply don't bet out into the raiser in this exact situation with a set.

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There was an obvious flush draw. That scares "people". I don't know what the exact probability he has a set (given his lead), but assuming you have 15 outs is simply wrong (you had only 12 outs here, that can also happen).

[curtains]

I actually wasn't posting this as a hand question, it was more of an annoying situatiuon where you have to accept a probable coin flip early in a sit and go.

[curtains]

It's not about how many chips of mine I've given away, its about my pot odds now, which happen to be tremendous. I wish I were good enough to just fold here and crush everyone later on with my obvious skill, but I'm not.

I do expect to outplay them. One of the ways I outplay them is by calling for 500 in an 800 dollar pot when Im probably a slight favorite/slight underdog.

There is also extremely little chance he has a set. A flush draw doesn't generally scare people in a headsup pot where the only other opponent was the preflop raiser. Very unlikely I have a flush draw here. Actually the absolute only hand in the deck that I would have raised with preflop 2nd to act and made a flush draw, is AK of spades. The chances of this aren't very high.

Since it's blatantly obvious I will bet this flop if he checks, the large majority of players with a set will check here. I actually think that betting is just flat out wrong if you flop a set here as the first player. There is 270 in the pot already and he has 510, When he bets 200 there is no fold equity so I'll just fold overcards but move allin with my pairs. Whereas if he checks, I'll bet all my hands on this board.

[TheAmp]

I see. I won't waste my time next time then.

[curtains]

Well no don't feel like that, I understand how people might want to fold, especially at lower buyins. And I did expect some people to suggest folding, I just happen to think it's wrong.

People seem to overestimate their ability to outplay their opponents in general. I wouldn't be totally shocked if this was a reasonable fold at some of the lower buyins...although I'd probably move allin anyway. At a $215 buyin I think you are just giving up too much to fold here.

The higher the buyin, the less your edge will generally be against your opponents, and thus you will often be forced to play in sitautions like this.

[adanthar]

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Don't make a big deal out of it. you are giving away 120 chips to avoid a coinflip (at best) for half your stack.


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Folding here is pretty bad at any level.

Start by giving him a range of hands. Although the pot odds need to be more attractive at $10+1 than $200+15 because of your bigger edge, his range of hands is (dis)proportionately wider. For one thing, in a 10+1 he can play 76s or absolutely nothing this way.

Once you put him on a range, you can't fold getting 1.5:1, period.

[TheAmp]

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Once you put him on a range, you can't fold getting 1.5:1, period.

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Given the range of hands I mentioned, curtains is a small underdog. I am aware of the odds offered by the pot, but in my opinion, the fact that you are risk averse in this situation outweighs these odds.

Lets look at the stack sizes after each scenario:

Fold on flop : 960 chips

Call all-in and win (lets say 47%) :1755 chips

Call all-in and lose (53%) :450 chips

The damage of losing this hand so early is not compensated by the +EV you gain when you call.

Yes, this is the minority opinion. Please respect my detailed point of view - I respect yours, even if we don't agree.

Ending posts with "period" does not contribute to an open discussion. I might be wrong to fold this hand, but you (and others) may be convinced now that this is a closer decision than it seems. That should make my effort worthwhile.


S.J.

[curtains]

I still believe that it's definitely worth the risk, especially if I'm 47% to win the hand. It's hard to have an ROI above 10% in the $215s, thus showing that there is less discrepency in skill between the best and worst players in the event. I just don't think you can get away with regularly folding in this situation (and still think it's a mistake to fold if this was a lower limit, but I admit it's closer).

[TheAmp]

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I still believe that it's definitely worth the risk, especially if I'm 47% to win the hand.

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Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. My point is that +EV shouldn't be the only guideline to consider, and I believe it is WAY overrated in tournament poker. Would you call a level 1 all in with 22 if you knew you were up against AK, and everyone else will fold? This idea has nothing to do with the buy-in, or with your oponnent's skill. It's basic theory in tournament poker.
Similar arguments can be made regarding the ICM model, and I think we agree about that.

The fact you should be risk averse for half your stack on the early stages of SnG's is underrated. We shouldn't forget this is why very tight play is recommended on levels 1-3. Mucking hands with +EV pre-flop is routine.

There are additional considerations as well. For example, if you win this hand, you will knock out the all in player. You will gain tournament equity, Which is what matters. That could make it correct to call, not just the "pot odds".

I believe your post is very important, not just an "annoying situation" as you say, because it demonstrates balancing between contradicting ideas in SnG poker. That's what it takes to beat SnG's. Actually, that's what it takes to beat any poker game.

S.J.