stop and go bluff at Prima 10-20 NL

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
Wrong. He is putting in bets before the river with the intention of betting the river, this he needs more than a 50% chance of a fold for this play to be correct.

[ QUOTE ]
If Neon really believes there's a better than 50/50 chance that the button will fold his AK or whatever hand he has and Neon has a good read and understand how his opponent thinks, this river bet is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re-read what I said.

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you are against Bruiser, this play sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

So Brusier posts a few select hands that would indicate he is somewhat weak tight and you think you can make this play against Bruiser?

Anyways, I stand by my original post and I admire the ballsy play. It's not stupid and it's not wrong. He played the man, not the cards. He fooled his opponent into thinking he had a much bigger hand and that's all that matters.

Lawrence

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
For me, the idea of a hand strategy post is to answer the question: "how did I play this hand?" or demonstrate "I played this hand this way." Just because the river play may, in isolation, garner a positive expectation, is far from enough to conclude that the entire hand was played well. And the criticism of this hand, Lawrence, is not aimed at the river bet and the river bet only.

[/ QUOTE ]

The focus of my argument is not how the river was played and how much the river bet should have been.

The focus of my argument is that our hero laid out a plan from start to finish that he would outplay his opponent based on what he thought he knew of his opponent and what his opponent knew of him. The focus of my argument is that our hero had the balls to do it, understood his opponent very well which ultimately gave him a superior edge.

Lawrence

[IgorSmiles]

Reread Yeti's post, guys. You have A/K, you raised preflp, you bet flop and turn and your opponent pushes in on the river. Do you feel good about calling here? What is he representing? 10s full, obviously. If this is a horrible play, it's only because so many players these days aren't sharp enough to see what he's representing. Not sure if I fold A/K here, but I sure dont feel good about calling.

[Snoogins47]

[ QUOTE ]
Reread Yeti's post, guys. You have A/K, you raised preflp, you bet flop and turn and your opponent pushes in on the river. Do you feel good about calling here? What is he representing? 10s full, obviously. If this is a horrible play, it's only because so many players these days aren't sharp enough to see what he's representing. Not sure if I fold A/K here, but I sure dont feel good about calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, if it's a bad play because our opponent is more likely to call than the math says he would be to make it profitable, how does this make it intelligent?

Secondly, he wouldn't have to "not feel comfortable calling," he'd have to fold somewhere around 67% of the time (I don't recall the exact numbers, but the overlay on a successful delayed bluff on the turn was roughly 1:2).

Even if he folds AK enough here, villain could easily have AA, KK, TT, or other things he's more likely to call with as well. Somebody that bets the flop and the turn heads up doesn't always have top pair.

I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad play. Like I said, I don't have the authority necessary to make a judgement on a game I haven't played against a player I don't know. I'm just pointing out things that people may have missed.

[Loci]

[ QUOTE ]
If Neon really believes there's a better than 50/50 chance that the button will fold his AK or whatever hand he has and Neon has a good read and understand how his opponent thinks, this river bet is +EV.



[/ QUOTE ]

Despite my nutpeddling tendancies, I do agree. There has to be a point where you take down the pots that you should fold.

[ QUOTE ]
It's a ballsy play, not a stupid one.


[/ QUOTE ]

It has a hint of both. Still, I have a profound respect for what calculated stupidity can reap in both poker and life.
Well played.