gutshots in the big blind

[Paluka]

Well I clearly must be wrong, because just about everyone disagrees with me. But stoxtrader agreed with me and I respect his opinion quite a bit.
So from now on I'll try betting flops similar to (a), and see how it works.

[YoureToast]

I would tend to bet all of these hands, but let me give a shot at thinking about this mathematically.

There are 3 bets in the pot, so you are getting 3:1 for your bet.
Lets assume you have 4 outs (assuming that the backdoor flush and straight draws are not a factor).
Thus you need 11:1 pot odds to justify a "call" in this situation, not taking into account implied odds.
Lets assume that the small blind will fold 75% of the time to a bet.
Lets assume UTG will fold 40% to a bet.
Lets try this 10 times.
Assume you "lose" every hand that is not folded unless you hit the gutshot on the turn.
1 time out of 10, you hit your gutshot, gain 3 more small bets on avg: Investment 1 SB, Gain 6 SBs
3 times (.75 * .40) out of 10, they both fold: Investment 1 SB, Gain 3 SBs
6 times out of 10, either or both call, you don't hit your gutshot, you fold to a subsequent bet and lose: Investment 1 SB, Gain 0.
So in total, you've invested 10 SBs and you've gained 9 back.
Based on these assumptions, you should check/fold, but barely. Change the assumptions slightly and this is a winning bet.

I am absolutely positive this math is WRONG (assuming the assumptions are correct) -- please someone tell me why.

[SinCityGuy]

Against typical opponents, I would bet out on (a) and (c) and expect to win immediately about 50% of the time.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not put in a dime on the flop with any of these.


[/ QUOTE ]

at least bet the rainbow flops. geez...