My pushing/folding analysis program

[eastbay]

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I think if you tried to write it you might drop the "just" and "simple", but yes, it is an analysis, aka number crunching, program.

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Yeah, when you take all of the issues into account it probably becomes a lot more complicated. How long is a simulation taking on your beta?

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It is essentially instantaneous when the number of players is 6 or less. For 10 players, it takes a ~10 seconds on my 1 GHz machine, since the ICM method generates a full combinatoric tree of finish possibilities.

But generally this tool shines for shorthanded play anyway, so I don't consider that much of a problem.

eastbay

[imported_bingobazza]

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eastbay
I think you may have just killed SNGs, although it will probably be a slow death. Great looking tool.

BingoBazza [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Bingo,

I don't think so, but I definitely considered how wise it would be for my bankroll to release something like this.

When David and Mason released HPFAP, I am sure lots of people lamented that all the "secrets" had been divulged and poker would no longer be very profitable. But I think we all know that didn't happen.

I think this is similar (on a much smaller scope, of course - this tool is pretty darn specialized). Yes, the players who are willing to learn can use this tool to really ramp them up in these things, just like a newbie who reads and studies HPFAP. I have little doubt about that. But I also think that too many players just aren't willing to do that. They just wanna play for fun and all this thinking or reviewing hands stuff is not for them.

I'm not worried... yet. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

eastbay

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Eastbay

Im kinda apprehensive about posting this, as its only my third post, and lots of very clever people have already rubbished my post...but I feel strongly that I should clarify my thoughts from my initial post. I really hope that you prove me wrong.

1) A lot of our +EV, but not all of it, comes from people who make plays that are incorrect based on c and $(EV)

2)This this tool is likely to lessen the gap between those that currently understand and apply these concetps well, and those that dont, but who will use this tool in the future.

3)I agree with your stance above absolutely for the lower buy in levels. The population of players there is so lazy and uninformed generally (except 2+2ers ofcourse). The uninformed here will largely remain so.

4)However, the playing population is much different at higher limits, $215 and up. At the higher levels, opponents are MUCH more likely to know about this forum, and hence this tool, and Im sure a clever bloke like you will have a marketing strategy will target the rest!

5) To quote JASucker - Even a small % increase in players playing with the correct strategy will mean that the games become very difficult to beat. (as enigmatic as JAsucker is, I think he is referring to this type if strategy adjustment by poor players)

I think that some posters have underestimated the impact and the penetration rate of this tool at higher limits (or maybe im overestimating the penetration rate?). At high limits, there are several implications;

a) You will HAVE to have this, or be disadvantaged as a reult.
b) If everyone has it, there will be no change...provided everyone has the same proportion of +ev from taking advantage of their opponents poor (ev) plays. This is unlikely to be true in reality.
c) If around 40%-60% of players have it, that 40-60% will, overtime make up the entire REGULAR population of players at that level FOR A PERIOD as the others will slowly bleed to death or get this tool. If this is the case, there will be less +ev for the players who previously played correctly, in the way that Tiger Woods forced other players to work harder to catch up with him a few years back, and now no longer dominates. The good players will then look for contrarian strategies which are currently unknown to counter this game change. The tool may then becomes less important when the contrarian strategies become the norm for the good players.
d) If around 10% of players have it, they will increase their EV by making more better decisions faster.

I really hope D is the case, but I suspect that C may be the case over time. Maybe Im giving players at higher limits too much credit? Time will tell...depending on the penetration rate. I can't imagine a good player knowing about this and not having it. So it could come down to your marketing.

Bingobazza

PS - I think you alluded to a good point - this is much more specialised than HPFAP - thats why its impact on the specialised SNG world COULD be large...but make little or no difference to the general poker playing population outside SNGs. I wonder what Strassa, Gigabet, JAsucker and other high buy in players will think of this, cos what do I know, I love bingo.

[imported_bingobazza]

eastbay

I forgot to say a couple of very important things:

Firstly, thankyou every much for doing this...it really is a great piece of kit and I will definitely be using it every day when its ready.

Secondly, evolution generally isnt a bad thing for the species, but it can be for the individual if he was highly evolved to begin with and others are now evolving at a faster rate than him, even though they cannot evolve past him.


Bingobazza

[FishBurger]

I've been playing SnGs for almost two years now and this will be the first piece of helper software I buy. I haven't purchased pokertracker because it looks too clunky and I doubt that it would have a direct impact on my bottom line. Eastbay's software looks very easy to use and it will almost assuredly have a direct impact on my bottom line.

I plan on using it to help me kill the 20s and I can't imagine players at higher levels not having it (or something like it).

[splashpot]

Any guess on a release date? Or price?

[raptor517]

in the 109s, when i push, i get called by crap as bad as A3, 22, K7, Q8, etc. its terrible. i would lower the average at LEAST to A7 or so.

[eastbay]

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Any guess on a release date? Or price?

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I have finalized some details on my forum. See top post in this thread for a link.

eastbay

[Mr_Gordon]

bump

[curtains]

Anyone who thinks that programs like this will kill sit and gos are completely insane. Everytime a new program comes out you get about 10 posts about how its going to destroy the game, like pokerprophecy, pokeroffice, pokertracker, this and etc etc etc.