Why does everyone insist you can't fold Kings preflop?

[YKing]

I made up a could-be senario:
You both have a stack of $300.
Blinds $1 + $2
You raise first in making it $5 to go. (POT:$8)
He raises TO $20. (POT:$28)
You re-raise to $50 (POT:$78)
He's all-in: (POT:$358)
You have $245 left giving you 1:1.46 pot odds. Therefore you need to win 40.6% of the times to make a profit if you call.
If you put him on the following hands with a likehood of:
AA: 60%
KK: 10%
QQ: 15%
AK (any): 15%

Against these hands you win this often (i'm not sure if the following figures is exactly correct because I collected the stats from different places on internet, but it should be close in any case):
AA: 18%
KK: 50% (since it's a split)
QQ: 18%
AK: 68%

Combining these figures gives you a win % of 38.3% < 40.6%;
hence -EV.

Of coure if the raises in the beginning are larger or your stacks shallower a call in this case is correct. I were only trying to illustrate that folding KK can be correct.

Hopefully these calculations are correct, otherwise corrections are appreciated. The probabilities of opponent's hand is arbitary and not based on the acctual likehood of them.

[RJT]

The OP did not say that he is right 90% of the time. He said there are times when he is 90% certain he is right. He does not give an estimate of the % of times he is right. He is asking if it ok to fold when he is almost certain he is up against AA.

[LinusKS]

The ninety percent figure isn't right. In fact, I don't think you even need to be 50% sure -

Fer instance -

If you were 40% sure he had AA, and you figured he was equally likely to have QQ and AK the rest of the time the math would come out:

40% of the time you would have lost 9 times out of 10
30% of the time you would have won 9 times out of 10
30% of the time you would have won 7 times out of 10

.4 @ .1 = .04
.3 @ .9 = .27
.3 @ .7 = .21

Equals .52, meaning you're barely profitable.

If you move it to 45/25/30 it comes out

.45 @ .1 = .045
.25 @ .9 = .225
.30 @ .7 = .210

Or .480.

Of course, that's ignoring what's already in the pot.

You'd have to add that back in to get the true odds.

[Kaz The Original]

Come on, that action aint realistic. Making it 5 to go? Weak!

[Cleveland Guy]

Your number against QQ is backwards.

KK will beat QQ 82% of the time.

This greatly changes the odds.

[Bluegoose75]

At the risk of making making this a little too simplistic, isn't it always a good play to 'lay down' when you're 90% certain you're beaten unless you're getting 9:1 odds?

I only say this because I hear all the time in live games that 'I knew you had Aces but I just couldn't lay down my Cowboys' or something similar to that. I always laugh when people say that. If you're certain you're beat, then you should fold. If you don't fold then saying you were certain either A) makes you look like you are an idiot for not folding or B)makes you look like a liar for saying you were certain.

My point is all the probabilities in the world would indicate to me that if you're certain you're beat then you should fold. PERIOD. If you're 50% certain, you better get 2:1 odds if your 90% certain you better get proper odds, etc. So in his example he's getting (assuming starting stacks were equal and blind values are negligible compared to the 'all in bet') 1:1 odds? Then to me the answer is obviously, yes it's the right call.

The bigger question is are you REALLY 90% certain he has aces at that time?

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]

I just think there are times when it's worth it to fold KK, yet I constantly hear from everywhere how you just can't do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I almost folded here.....

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($249.35)
Button ($97)
SB ($167.35)
Hero ($157.55)
UTG ($118.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K.
UTG folds, MP calls $2, Button calls $2, SB completes, Hero raises to $8, MP raises to $14, Button calls $12, SB folds, Hero raises to $30, MP raises to $46, Button raises to $97 (All-In), Hero raises to $157.55 (All-In), MP calls $111.55.

Flop: ($414.10) 8, 9, T (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($414.10) 6 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($414.10) 5 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $414.10
Main Pot: $293, between MP, Button and Hero. > Pot won by Button ($293).
Pot 2: $121.10, between MP and Hero. > Pot won by Hero ($121.10).

Results in white below:
Hero shows Kd Kc (one pair, kings).
MP shows 8c 4d (one pair, eights).
Button shows 5s 8s (two pair, eights and fives).
Outcome: Button wins $293. Hero wins $121.10.

[Rococo]

The main thing that everything should take away from this thread is that it usually is a bad idea in NL to put in the third raise preflop with KK, especially if it pot commits you but not your opponents. It folds out most of the pairs and high cards that you are way ahead of, and gets you stacked off when you run into AA.

[YKing]

You are right, but I've calculated with 82% in favor for KK. Just typed the inverse by mistake.

[SlowStroke]

I have folded KK pre-flop lots of times in live games.

I play in live no-limit games where there is no restriction on your buy-in amount and I always buy-in huge.

There are players in this game (like me) who buy in huge just to catch players who are not able to fold KK pre-flop, or fold second nut flushes, or fold second nut straights, or fold bottom set.

For example
1) Blinds $1 and $2
2) We both have about $1000 in front of us
3) He raises to $15
4) I re-raise to $50
5) He re-raises to $400

I know the odds of him being dealt AA is low, but the odds of him putting in that raise without AA is even lower (if he is a known rock).

I only have $50 invested and there is no reason to lose my entire $1000 just because I have KK.

I do agree that on the internet where the buy-in is limited to 50 or 100 big blinds, or in tournaments where your stack to blinds ratio is low that it is harder to make that fold. By the time you suspect your Kings may be no good it is too late, you probably already have so much in that you can't escape.