Flop nothing but draws vs a moneybag

[wuwei]

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Pot size 4 sb

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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Actually, it's 6 sb and you're closing the action with a gutshot to the nuts and a backdoor flush draw. I don't see the problem with calling here.

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So you need about 7.5:1 and you're calling getting 6:1. With 3 opponents, do you really think this is fine?

Rob

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Was just going to edit my post because that came off a little stronger than I meant it to, but I'll just add it here.

Yah, it's a bit thin, but I think we can make up a couple sb when we hit our hand with position. Many hands with a K will have a straight redraw that will keep people around. Or it's AK, and people have trouble folding AK.

If I really thought my opponent respected me enough and had the discipline to lay down to my turn raise, then I'd fold the flop. But I think you're overestimating how often people can do that at 2/4.

There's also the times when your opponent missed the flop, and then he'll fold to your raise. But if he missed, you should have some % chance at a free card then if he checks.

I don't know, I'm tired and sick today so maybe I'm a little off. But this call felt fine to me.

[Entity]

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Pot size 4 sb

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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Actually, it's 6 sb and you're closing the action with a gutshot to the nuts and a backdoor flush draw. I don't see the problem with calling here.

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So you need about 7.5:1 and you're calling getting 6:1. With 3 opponents, do you really think this is fine?

Rob

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Was just going to edit my post because that came off a little stronger than I meant it to, but I'll just add it here.

Yah, it's a bit thin, but I think we can make up a couple sb when we hit our hand with position. Many hands with a K will have a straight redraw that will keep people around. Or it's AK, and people have trouble folding AK.

If I really thought my opponent respected me enough and had the discipline to lay down to my turn raise, then I'd fold the flop. But I think you're overestimating how often people can do that at 2/4.

There's also the times when your opponent missed the flop, and then he'll fold to your raise. But if he missed, you should have some % chance at a free card then if he checks.

I don't know, I'm tired and sick today so maybe I'm a little off. But this call felt fine to me.

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The thing is, SB's hand is more likely to be weak than strong. Sometimes he'll call a turn raise and call down, but quite often he'll fold to the turn raise.

[adamstewart]

I can't really add anything, so I'll echo:

"Fold - the - flop!"


Adam

[wuwei]

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The thing is, SB's hand is more likely to be weak than strong. Sometimes he'll call a turn raise and call down, but quite often he'll fold to the turn raise.

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That's true. So you're arguing for a flop call and a turn semibluff raise when the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, I think I'll keep an eye on my flop calls. Thinking about this hand has got me wondering if I've loosened up too much. Good posts.

[Nick C]

I'm pretty sure I would have folded the flop, but I don't actually think the call is as bad as the responses have made it sound. No one has to have a king. The TAG SB bet into an unraised pot -- the unraised and relatively short-handed nature of the pot (only two players besides SB voluntarily put money in) reduces the chances a king is out there, which the SB could be taking into consideration. Closing the action, Hero isn't too far from having the odds to call with his gutshot and backdoor flush if he is against top pair. Since he doesn't have to be against a hand that strong (UTG's flop call certainly doesn't have to mean much), he could have pair outs.

Granted, those pair outs could in fact cost Hero if he catches a queen or jack and it's not good enough. So I'd probably fold -- in part to avoid that potential situation.

But I would wonder if SB had gotten me to fold incorrectly.

[adamstewart]

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Granted, those pair outs could in fact cost Hero if he catches a queen or jack and it's not good enough.

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This is an important point.

Sure, perhaps hero's Q and J can count as outs....but to that I say, "REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS".


Adam

[Nick C]

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Sure, perhaps hero's Q and J can count as outs....but to that I say, "REVERSE IMPLIED ODDS".

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Yeah, I was just putting the idea out there.

I do sometimes make flop calls (or raises, on occasion) that I think are slightly loose when the bet comes from someone I think is the "bet if checked to" type.

[dblgutshot]

Many of you are saying this is a fold on the flop. If preflop went the same way, is a flop raise for an attempt at a free card very wrong? (in comparison to folding or calling, which is best?)

If the K wasn't there and the Q and J were overcards to the flop (with a gutshot as well as backdoor flush draw), is a raise preferred in that situation or just a call?

Thanks

[Nick C]

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If the K wasn't there and the Q and J were overcards to the flop (with a gutshot as well as backdoor flush draw), is a raise preferred in that situation or just a call?

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I would seriously consider raising if there was no king (and I had overcards and a gutshot).

[utrnbmp3]

Hey kurosh, i just realized that you posted a few seconds early than i did last night.. I think we came up with very similar answers. I had .18 BB (i used much more estimates).

Now,
People raised some very general suggestions (although none really backed up their statements with a clear model).
If i can recall correctly, people raised the point of
a) should you have raised the flop?
b) how much would you value the reverse implied odds if a full house hits or a A High flush hits??
c) Would he just check the turn?
d) Would he fold to a turn raise?
e) What are the implications of a J or Q on the turn/river?

I will try to answer some of these questions accordingly.
I will only consider the case where he hits a flush/straight and is beat!
i) dealt pocket, hit trips --> may lead to boat
A player is dealt a particular pocket pair around 0.45% of the time. Assume: 22-88 are calling hands in the SB position.
Which pocket pair can he be afraid of? Basically only 44.
Given that the board had a 4, you should even adjust the % of him having 44 to around .3%. This is clearly insignificant.
ii) dealt K9. Even without board information and what you have in your hand the chance of being dealt K9 is around (4/52)* (4/51) = .6%. This isn't significant too.
iii) Dealt A2s-A9s? around (1/52)(8/51)= .3%
iv) add others

This has not fully accounted for all other information, which would probably reduce the likelyhood of you beat even more. Even if you or beat, you wouldn't be significantly paying them off.

So i claim that there are no significant reverse implied odds when you hit a flush/straight.

Anyways, please feel free to give suggestions. I beleive the only strong argument agianst calling so far is whether your opponent will fold to a turn raise.

Gotta goto raptors game! have fun.