Playing correctly.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
If I loose that coin flip I described in my first post it does really mean something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read about anything resembling a coin flip in your posts. That being said I stopped reading them after seeing that you might be advocating checking top set on a turn with merely a flush and straight draw on the board.

Yugoslav

P.S. And as for your hypothetical STEP 5 question -- no way in HELL I'd be playing steps if low variance meant so much to me (or affected my play so much). As usualy your first mistake in this scenario is playing the Steps at all.

[rybones]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't read about anything resembling a coin flip in your posts. That being said I stopped reading them after seeing that you might be advocating checking top set on a turn with merely a flush and straight draw on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

two dimes analysis of the step 5 setup:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Qh 573 57.88 417 42.12 0 0.00 0.579
Ks Js 417 42.12 573 57.88 0 0.00 0.421

people always say A,K over J,J is a coin flip and two dimes analysis of this: 53.68 : 45.94. A little closer, but not much.

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. And as for your hypothetical STEP 5 question -- no way in HELL I'd be playing steps if low variance meant so much to me (or affected my play so much). As usualy your first mistake in this scenario is playing the Steps at all.


[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I presented a hypothetical. No well in hell I am playing the steps. Also, I didn't say it affected my play. I presented a situation that could be a bit nerve racking when you know your opponent would call.

I am surprized at the agitation I have created by merely pointing out that optimal play is sometimes risky and that is sometimes scary. This sort of reminds me of the "argument with dali" thread. plenty of folks berated the call with A,6 (or was it 9) against the tight player. I think gigabet did a great job of proving the call was generally a -EV move. That said, if you knew your opponent had Q,J (I think that was the hand) then wouldn't the opptimal move be to call. A, 6 is ahead 54.65 : 44.90 according to twodimes? by the logic most are using now the A,6 is an auto call. I think Gigabet made a great argument for folding there. While the situation I described is by no means the same (stack issues definately different), I do not know how different they really are. I am quite sure gigabet would say the push is correct in my step 5 hand, but you are still risking your tournament life on what has turned into a relatively close hand.

As always these are just my thoughts and I really do want them rebuffed as then I learn.

Ryan

[rybones]

will no one refute my argument? perhaps this does mean one should fold top trips?

[microbet]

Not sure what I'm refuting, but...

Being afraid of busting out of a tournament on a risky move is like being afraid that if you turn on the TV you will see something that sucks.

[willie24]

note: this response is in reply to both Atticus and chickenhawk

[ QUOTE ]
If you are capable of playing this theoretically perfect poker, how likely are you to be outmatched, though?

[/ QUOTE ]

you can become outmatched if you start playing the adjusting-for-read game that we all love and play.

this game is what makes poker poker

the straight-mathematical game becomes an important issue when the blinds get high in an SNG (I would suggest that low-stack poker makes almost all of a winning SNG players profits).

since tight-is-right early, whether or not you play "perfectly" or merely "too tight," you will be close optimum play early.

when the blinds get high- it is fairly easy to play perfectly (in a mathematical sense). the problem is that it won't give you a huge advantage against good competition, since other players will also be playing near perfectly. it will, however, prevent you from being beat (that is, making exploitable mistakes)

against (a) poor player(s), you have the option of sacrificing defense to get a little something extra out of him/them. basically this is right, but only if it will work. making plays like this allows you to be beat when your opponent realizes what you are doing. you are then gambling that your opponent is not good enough to beat you.

for a huge discussion/argument about a situation like this- see the "argument with Daliman" thread that you probably have already read.

it that situation, the "perfect" play is certainly to call, although i guess it is possible that if your reads were great enough it could be right to fold (still, i doubt it).

[rybones]

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure what I'm refuting, but.

[/ QUOTE ]

O.K. my last post was a bit out of anger and thus I also don't know what you are supposed to refute.

So here is a more concise statement of my problem. Last night I read the "argument with dali" thread. I started by agreeing with curtains. I saw the call as an obvious +EV move. Then I read gigabets arguments for folding and said: "hmm, I guess that is a fold."

Today I set up two situation where throwing all your money in as a slight favorite (again situation not exactly the same but still similar) might be cause for concern and everyone gets up in a tizzy and basicly calls me an idiot that should quit poker.

So, which is it? do you fold hands where you are slightly ahead because you can steal later? Or, do you always bet when you have the best of it? What if I made the situations closer. What if I created the hand so you held T,T instead of Q,Q. You still likely have the best hand with trip Tens? is it possible that just calling with the tens is advisable? truly, I want to know.

Ryan

Does any of this make sense?

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Does any of this make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You're comparing apples and oranges. Firstly you're getting WAY better than even money here so even as a slight fave you're getting a massive overlay. Secondly you're putting UTG on KJss when there's no evidence at all to suggest he actually has that hand.

[rybones]

Ok, I agree with the overlay issue. The situation is also differnt as I already have money in the pot and the third person has also put some in. This I get.

That said, I am putting villian on K,Js because I made up the hand. I do "know". I purposefully created a hand to get at that what if you knew everything issue that I think was part of lori's original question.

perhaps yet another way to ask the question: is there every a time when you should fold the best hand because you know the big stack is drawing to the absolute nuts and he has lots of outs?

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
is there every a time when you should fold the best hand because you know the big stack is drawing to the absolute nuts and he has lots of outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

in a holdem tournament? yes. i'm fairly sure that it has never happened to me in my life though. it probably never will either.

an example of where it would be right to fold the best hand (postflop) to a draw:

the game is 3 handed. the blinds are 25/50. your stack prior to the hand is 80. the other 2 stacks have exactly 6k each.

you have 22 in the big blind. button limps. sb completes, and you check. the flop comes: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

the SB pushes, flips over 89o and says- "call me"

it would be correct for you to fold.

similarly, it would be right to fold if you and the SB both had 6k, the button had 10 chips, and folded preflop. you had J4 on the same board and the SB showed you 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and pushed.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
the game is 3 handed. the blinds are 25/50. your stack prior to the hand is 80. the other 2 stacks have exactly 6k each.

you have 22 in the big blind. button limps. sb completes, and you check. the flop comes: 2 J T

the SB pushes, flips over 89o and says- "call me"

it would be correct for you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure?

Your second example however is defiantely correct, but the situation is entirely different since A) you are now an underdog in the hand rather than an almost 3-1 favorite B) you are no longer the shortstack and don't need a miracle to survive.