When do you get over "The Fear"?

[Harv72b]

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when did i say or even imply that anything was likely?

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if anyone has a lower winrate and/or a higher SD, your statement is mathematically false.

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The original statement was that if you are a winning player after 20,000 hands, you will remain a winning player. It made no comments regarding specifics, except to state that the generic "you" was a winning player. You're arguing over semantics.

If you are now saying that it is possible, but unlikely, that a person who has established himself as a winning player over 20,000 hands could be a losing player in actuality, then your original reply that that was a "dumb thing to write" sounds particularly insulting and off-base.

[Sephus]

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when did i say or even imply that anything was likely?

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if anyone has a lower winrate and/or a higher SD, your statement is mathematically false.

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The original statement was that if you are a winning player after 20,000 hands, you will remain a winning player. It made no comments regarding specifics, except to state that the generic "you" was a winning player. You're arguing over semantics.

If you are now saying that it is possible, but unlikely, that a person who has established himself as a winning player over 20,000 hands could be a losing player in actuality, then your original reply that that was a "dumb thing to write" sounds particularly insulting and off-base.

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sigh.

i interpreted the original statement to mean "if you have played 20,000 hands of poker and have won money over that time, that means you have a positive expectation from the game."

is this what you meant?

i said that this statement is not only false, but dumb.

if what you really meant is "if you have played 20,000 hands with a positive expectation from the game and the game doesn't change and you don't change, then you will continue to have a positive expectation" well then you're not really saying anything at all.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

Aligator blood...

[ACW]

I take out 10% of my bankroll every month. Most months I win more than that, so my bankroll still grows, but it means that even if I lost everything, it would be less than half of my total winnings so far.

As for confidence that I'm a winning player, I circle the dates in my diary on which my lifetime winnings hit a new high. If the circles stop appearing for an extended period, it's time to be concerned. In the last 6 months the longest gap I've had is 16 days, although I think that means I've been lucky to avoid the death streak from hell that we regularly see posted. 50 days would worry me though.

[Kenrick]

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This is such a load of crap. 9 months is MORE than long enough to establish you as a winning player. The level of ignorance on this board on the issue of the relevance of runs of results is staggering. If you're a winning player over 20,000 hands, you're going to be a winning player if you keep doing what you're doing.

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The games can change. Wintertime is easier than summertime. You can be doing great for 20k hands, and then you hit a 300bb downswing and feel like the world is coming to an end. It can happen. Look at David Ross' 500+ bb downswing. 20k isn't that many hands. He lost that much in 12k hands after winning for 2+ years, and many people thought it was impossible.

To the OP: if you want the fear to go away faster, play with a huge bankroll for your level. If you play with scared money, you're doomed to have nightmares.

[Lawrence Ng]

Hi Flop,

My thoughts on fear in this game have changed quite a bit. The thing with fear is that it can really cloud your judgement at the table.

This is even so the case with many players who have proven time and time again they are winning players. From a professional standpoint I can understand that if a player really abuses their winnings or overspends, that it can cause a great deal of financial insecurity. However, for the semi-pro or recreational player I think that there needs to be a real good understanding that building up that roll is really all that matters.

Think about it this way. You started with $50,$50,$100 for $200. So you took $200 and built that up to $2k now. You are freerolling $1800 that was never your own money to begin with.

Many players, including myself, look at this way and I am no different. I've lost monstrous pots in PL and NL games because I read hands wrong. But I'm freerolling really, and though these lessons are expensive, it's really not costing me a dime.

If you play good, have a good respect for the game and your opponents then you will continue to do well.

Yes you are a solid smart player and yes you are lucky SOB.

Lawrence

[lil_o]

Try and limit the number of big bets lost per session to a a steadfast value and stick to that to help with steam control.

[EliteNinja]

Just keep an eye on your bankroll.
If it goes down real fast, perhaps drop down a level.
If it goes up real fast, perhaps move up a level.

That is all.

[OrianasDaad]

Take some of that money out of your bankroll and BUY something with it. Move down in limits if your bankroll is at risk.

It sounds like you don't have to rely on poker for income - so ENJOY sofe of the fruits of your labor.

[StellarWind]

I think a lot of people in this thread are missing a fundamental point.

"The Fear" is not a fear of losing money for most people. It's fear of being a losing player. It's fear of not being the good player you want to believe you are. Bankroll management can only protect your bankroll. It cannot cure "The Fear".

The best thing you can do for your game and your confidence is to analyze your own hands. Once in a while play over an entire session in Poker Tracker. Look at every hand you flopped. You'll learn a lot and gain a much better sense of how well you play. Also how badly your opponents play.